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Guest Article: Future Future Sight

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By: Ian Shore

One of the most important things in this game is learning to read the tea leaves. Watching tournament reports, learning to evaluate cards, and knowing basic archetype strengths and weaknesses can help you evaluate data and start to learn to predict player and price behavior. The same is true of watching WotC’s behavior. MaRo’s blog, their two-year development cycle, their seven year “plan” cycles – watching how they work over the years can give you insights into where we’re going next, and might help you make and/or save some money along the way. We’ve had a lot going on over the last month or so, and I believe it’s telling us that we may be entering some new territory over the next few months. As always, this could be totally off. But that’s not going to stop me from introducing potential future #1:

1. Standard may be changing.

A weekend or two ago it was announced that all four PTs in 2015 would be featuring the Standard format.  When asked why Modern was not being featured, the response was that Modern was stale and not “dynamic,” didn’t feature the newest MTG release, and that they didn’t want to have to resort to bans in order to get a fresh format every year. Standard certainly makes sense, in terms of featuring the newest release, but the last two years of Sphinx’s Revelation certainly do not bring the words “dynamic” to mind. The last few sets have only had a marginal shake-up of the format.  The best decks usually have enough good tools to continue being good, and often end up getting even more tools to work with.

And WotC knows this. Which makes the decision to go mono-Standard a bit more puzzling, in that the “change” they desire doesn’t seem to be something that regularly occurs in the format. On the most recent godbook survey, players were asked how they felt about the length of time that cards spent in Standard.  However, Aaron Forsythe recently ruled out a possible three-year extension to Standard, as it would keep problem cards in the format for far too long.

What, then, could be the change? The only other alternative solution would appear to be a move to an “eight set” rotation, rather than the two most recent blocks.  Much like seven-set Extended, when a new set was released, it would simply knock the oldest set out of the format.  This would most definitely create the “dynamism” that WotC is looking for on the Pro Tour, as each event would have cards exiting AND entering the format simultaneously, keeping the format churning month to month.  This would also extend the length of time that 2nd/3rd sets are relevant in Standard, eliminating the “seasonal” cycle we’ve seen with PTQ seasons, rotation, and the concurrent ebb and flow of prices.  It would also almost certainly increase sales for WotC, now that all sets would be in Standard for approximately two years.

And most importantly, it would “solve” most of the issues they have been fighting against with the format in regards to tournament exposure.  Moving to an all-Standard PT set with the current Standard setup would likely start to result in more bans over the long run. Culling MTGO results doesn’t seem to have accomplished much in this regard, as the very large data set provided by SCG, TCGP, and WotC Organized Play results in metagames being very quickly established.  We know they (and we) have been frustrated by their inability to make open-ended, interesting format.  #SaitoWayfinder, Pat Chapin, and many others do their very best to try and both troll the world and open up the format, but the relentless tyranny of Sphinx’s Revelation or Thoughtseize decks ends up quickly stamping out the fun for people.

A change to Standard would be a radical change, but they’ve been making a number of those over the last 5-6 years. This would simply be another one, and it’d be one they could easily revert if, after the next year, it didn’t test very well. It’s a risky proposition, but one that could pay off huge for them.  Speaking of things that are going to pay off huge…

8/13 edit: Apparently, I am not alone, as Chapin himself suggested a six-set rotating structure in a recent SCG article. I do think, however, that this would be too problematic, regarding both manabases and sets not being in Standard long enough, and that eight sets would keep things in a much happier place for most players.

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2. Modern Masters 2 is likely releasing on 5/29. The North Amercan “TBD” GP location is Vegas.

Many of us have assumed that MM2 was coming this year, given the massive success of MM1, and the two – year Dev cycle that WotC works on. We’ve been getting indirect confirmation of this over the past few weeks. The first indication was at the SDCC panel. The small “bridge” set for Khans block is being released in January, a month earlier than normal. The large Spring set is coming out in March, one or two months earlier than normal. On the PT schedule, the Summer PT isn’t occurring until August. Meaning that there is now a 4-month gap between the Spring PT in early April, and the Summer PT in early fall.

And what could possibly be located, smack dab in the center of those? 3 “Location TBD” GP tournaments happening simultaneously on the last weekend in May. (notably, NOT Memorial day.)  An unprecedented occurrence, one that we were told to “mark our calendars” for by Rich Hagon on the final day of the PT broadcast. The locations clearly aren’t “TBD” – they work too far out in advance for them to be undecided. So why hide them? Because announcing Vegas would give away what’s about to occur.

But that’s not all. Three Modern GPs are scheduled immediately following this event, one in the US, one in Asia, and one in Europe.  I can’t tell you what to sell, or when, but I would strongly suggest moving Liliana of the Veil, a card that’s near-guaranteed to be reprinted in the set, or in a near-future core set like M16. Also, something we’ll also likely see? The Eldrazi legends. Why?

3. We are going back to Zendikar for at least part of the next block. Oh, and Delve is in Khans

In case you hadn’t been following Mark Rosewater’s Tumblr, Blogatog, he answers a lot of questions there. He likes being able to get the direct feedback, and contrast it with his market research, as well as to just get quick feedback regarding product direction and mechanics that he can’t otherwise get.

About a year ago, he suddenly started asking players a lot about Zendikar a. What would they expect of a return to the plane? What mechanics? Did they like annihilator? Would they expect the OG Eldrazi legends? And 3-4 months later, suddenly, we started to have answers. Annhilator was “likely” not returning when the Eldrazi did. The next time we see the Eldrazi legends, they would “likely” have new cards.  You read MaRo’s tea leaves by noticing which questions he’s choosing to answer. This question in particular reads a lot more interestingly now than it did a few weeks ago: http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post/57332759132/do-you-think-that-theres-enough-space-in-colorless-vs

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In a similar vein – Mark’s brought up Delve a lot in the past month, and he’s previously emphasized it needed to NOT be in a GY-focused set, since it eats up graveyards and promotes non-interaction with them. Given this uptick in mentions, alongside the description of the mechanic at the SDCC panel, it’s almost certainly the BUG mechanic for Khans.

But, going back to Zendikar – we can also look at the most recent Planeswalker Guide on the WotC website, where there’s a very strong focus on the Planeswalkers who surround the storyline of the original Zendikar block.  By itself, it means little. But in conjunction with Maro’s blog, the M15 usage of Zendikar, and all sorts of other factors, the constellation being formed points in a single direction.

So we know that Zendikar is coming up soon, seven years after the original block. Oh, and the original Zendikar block came up seven years after Onslaught block.  Huh. What did those two sets have in common? Oh right.

4. The fetchlands are coming.

Aaron, Mark, and the other members of OP and R&D were shocked at the reaction to the Standard PT and PPTQ announcements, particularly as it related to the Modern format. From our outside point of view, it shouldn’t be surprising at all. But why was theirs different? Because they were aware of many things we weren’t.  Modern Masters 2 is one of them. But simply printing Modern Masters 2 wouldn’t really do much to address the larger issues with manabases in the format being hyper-expensive, the biggest barrier to entry problem that the format has.  So in order to get players into the format, you need to reduce those costs and make the manabases accessible. That means reprinting the biggest chokepoint in the format, and doing it through Standard.

That means Fetchlands.

Now, it’s been six years since we last saw Enemy Fetchlands, and thirteen since we last saw allied ones. We’re at the point where they’d naturally be reprinted anyway. Zendikar II (Reign of the Eldrazi?) is coming up in Fall 2015, and would be a natural fit for them. But in a year in which they are going to be making a massive push for Modern in May, that’s actually too late for them to assist, especially when trying to bump turnout at an event like GP Charlotte, run by none other than SCG, TO for the record-setting GP: Richmond.

This means that an appearance in Khans block by the OG Onslaught Fetchlands is actually quite likely. Especially given that we’re time-travelling in the block to an “Earlier Era” where dragons are everywhere. This would allow for the Enemy Fetchlands to be shelved for later, or simply reprinted in Zendikar block.

It is very unlikely, btw, that these lands show up in Modern Masters 2. They’re well aware of the barrier to entry problem that they present, and reprinting them in MM2 simply wouldn’t do enough to ease the supply issues on the basic lands. If we do get a land cycle in there, the Shadowmoor/Eventide Filterlands would be a much more appropriate set to use, given that they seemed to let people play a little too fast and loose with mana while they were in Standard. The allied manlands are another potential option, but given that putting the Enemy ones in Zendikar II would be an easy call, I suspect we may end up seeing those allied ones show up in a core set some day soon, given the need to reprint Colonnade.

And with four reasonable predictions out of the way, I’ll end with a crazy guess.

5. Tarkir is Dominaria

Morph, Arcanis in the Duel Deck (Onslaught), the first wedge cycles (Apocalypse), time travel (Time Spiral), a dragon Set (Scourge.)  Where else could Tarkir be taking place but Magic’s home? 😛 Yeah, I’m probably wrong on this, but conspiracy theories are fun!

Obviously, only the folks over at WotC know the future, but that doesn’t prevent us from being able to profit off of it. If you can figure out what’s coming next, you can figure out what to do right now.

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Weekend Update for 6/7/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Celestial Colonnade (Worldwake)
From $20.35 to $22.35 (9.8%)

Is everyone ready for Modern season?

UWR Control and Midrange decks have been very prolific in the meta recently. 4 Color Gifts and UWR Twin decks have also adopted play sets of Colonnade main deck.

This card works as mana fixing and a finisher that dodges sweeper cards like Supreme Verdict. Usually a land that enters the battlefield tapped has a minor upside like 1 life or Scry 1. The ability to turn into a Serra Angel is nothing short of incredible.

You can attack with it and leave up mana for a Spell Snare or Path to Exile.

I would trade these away happily.

These are much easier to reprint in Standard or a supplemental product than Fetchlands.

9. Privileged Position (Ravnica)
From $13.80 to $15.38 (11.5%)

Commander and Casual players do not like it when you mess with their stuff.

Once you have built up enough mana for an Eldrazi or Kor Spiritdancer loaded with auras the last thing you want is a removal spell destroying all of your hard work.

This has been a steady gainer for a long time but I would not expect indefinite gains. The name and mechanics are generic enough to fit into any set or product that Wizards feels it can be used in.

I see nothing against getting a few to trade to Commander players but I would not go in much further than that

8. Pact of Negation (Modern Masters)
From $8.90 to $9.95 (11.8%)

You can never go wrong with a free counterspell. It protects combos and vital pieces of your board. Play it once and your opponent will always wonder if you have one in your hand.

The Pacts were printed in Modern Masters but it has been a year and prices are once again returning to starting to climb back up.

I think this is a card poised to make a vital return at a key moment in upcoming PTQ coverage.

Currently it is used in Ad Nauseam, Amulet of Vigor and even a UR Possibility Storm deck. I expect it will see wider adoption within the next few months.

7. Shivan Reef (10th Edition)
From $8.22 to $9.19 (11.8%)

Modern Storm decks do not have the luxury of waiting for lands that enter the battlefield tapped. They need their fixing and they need it now.

Shivan Reef is seeing play alongside Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls and Scalding Tarns. That is good company to be in.

It has been printed several times and Storm is an infamously complex deck to play. I don’t think players will support it in enough numbers to keep this price where it is.

It is approaching the price of Shocklands and that does not seem sustainable.

6. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $6.36 to $7.64 (20.1%)

This card is well positioned come rotation. It plays defense, fix and accelerates your mana without giving your opponent the potential to set you back a turn with a Shock.

It can help you power out a turn three Reaper of the Wilds, Eidolon of Blossoms or Polukranos, World Eater.

It is already a heavy lifter in Standard and I don’t expect that to go away any time soon.

The only unfortunate thing about it is that it was a rare in a heavily drafted set and it was a promo. I think it will approach $10 but I don’t think it will be able to do much better than that.

5. Sigil of the Empty Throne (Conflux)
From $5.00 to $6.07 (21.4%)

I know people have been brewing both Monowhite and Azorius Prison decks with Sigil as the finisher.

Journey into Nyx got a lot of people discussing Constellation. I don’t know if Nyx-Fleece Ram is good enough to buy time but I am sure someone is testing  it.

Legacy has also been experimenting with a Selesnya Enchantress deck that runs Sigil as a high end finisher.

This card has gotten a lot of attention recently and I would trade into the hype.

4. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $13.14 to $16.30 (24.0%)

Courser of Kruphix is the hottest thing in Standard. Pretty much any deck with green mana wants to play the full four. You get card advantage just for running it in the same deck as lands.

You can combine it with Domri Rade for even more hilarity.

Eidolon of Blossoms loves the fact that is it an enchantment.

Opposing aggressive decks packed with two power creatures for one mana hate it. Burn decks resent the incidental life gain that adds up over the course of a game.

It is even being used in Modern Jund and 4 Color Gifts decks.

The one big question is if it can break the $20 glass ceiling for rares.

As much as I love this card I don’t see a lot of room for it to grow. If you want to turn it into cash you will not be leaving a lot of money on the table.

You won’t regret holding onto them either. It is very well positioned for rotation as shown by the variety of Theros block decks that pack the full four. I expect it to keep its new price tag for the rest of its time in Standard.

3. Seizan, Perverter of Truth (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $3.31 to $4.08 (26.3%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer has breathed new life into a lot of group hug cards.

Giving away cards is usually a good way to pacify your opponents but the Mindrazer also makes it a great way to kill them.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is supposed to give everyone a free Night’s Whisper each turn but with your Commander out it is at least a Harrowing Journey for your opponents if not worse.

His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental Products.

I would happily trade him to anyone fine tuning their Nekusar deck.

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If you find your play group looking for a good way to deal with the influx of Nekusar decks I would suggest Omen Machine. It turns their Commander into a Pillarfield Ox and lets everyone else play their spells for free. It is a bulk rare and easy to slide into any Commander deck.

2. Slaughter Pact (Modern Masters)
From $3.19 to $4.08 (27.9%)

Free spells are always handy and free removal is no exception. Any Modern deck that has black mana should at least be asking if they want to run this spell.

Jund, Melira Pod and even Amulet of vigor and a host of other decks use it to keep Twin decks at bay.

Anyone who is experimenting with the format due to the release of the Modern Event Deck will also be looking for this card.

This is exactly the kind of card I would want to have in my binder to trade to Modern players.

1. Garruk Relentless (Innistrad)
From $3.75 to $5.22 (39.2%)

The fact that this is a double sided planeswalker makes it unique and unlikely to ever be reprinted.

Modern has been toying with it in Junk midrange and it even sees play in the sideboard of Legacy Nic-Fit decks.

It has a home in Commander decks that play both black and green so there will always be some demand.

I think that this is a pretty safe investment in the long run with some potential growth in the short run if any of the decks that use it take off.

I would not actively try to seek them out but I would happily trade for them from players that were have stock left over from last year’s rotation.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Krenko, Mob Boss (M13)
From $4.85 to $4.46 (-8.0%)

Goblins will always be a popular choice in casual formats of all kinds. They are one of the oldest and most aggressive tribes in every format they populate.

Krenko is not a goblin lord but he does play very well with them. He is four mana so he is sitting on the top of the curve of playable goblins.

He does see play on both Modern and Legacy Goblin decks but normally only as one or two copies.

He has demonstrated slow but consistent growth since he rotated and I expect that to continue.

I think this was just a hiccup.

4. Deus of Calamity (Shadowmoor)
From $2.90 to $2.52 (-13.1%)

Duel Deck: Heroes vs Monsters reprinted this card and that is where things get interesting.

You can now pick up the new version of this card for $0.99.

This has led to several sites underselling the original card. It actually has a negative spread right now.

You can find copies as low as $1.49 and buylist them for $1.51.

This is not going to make you a lot of money but it shows that there is an underlying confidence in this card.

Any time you can buy a card at or below buylist is an amazing opportunity.

Look for these in trade binders.

3. Steel Hellkite (Scars of Mirrodin)
From $1.70 to $1.41 (-17.1%)

Here is another glitch in the Matrix. The current Beta is a slightly negative spread.

People are treating this like a bulk rare when it gets played in Legacy MUD.

It is only played as a single copy but it still sees play.

It is also compatible with any Commander deck and it is a dragon for the casual crowd.

Do not be fooled. I would get in on these.

2. Spirit Mantle (M12)
From $2.56 to $2.00 (-21.9%)

I love this card. It is exactly the kind of uncommon I like to see when I purchase “bulk” from people.

Did you know you can buylist them for $1.50?

Most people see an uncommon and assume it is $0.25.

You can even find copies online for $1.35 as I type this.

If free money does not interest you then maybe Modern Hexproof decks do. Several of them are trying this out in the deck.

I think you could be in a lot worse place than sitting on a small stack of these while the Pro Tour is focused on Modern.

1. Echo Mage (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $0.93 to $0.68 (-26.9%)

Commander 2013 has really shaken up a lot of prices. It giveth but sometimes it taketh away.

Echo Mage was included in Commander 2013 in the Mind Seize deck. Everyone pillaged it for True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix and converted the rest to a Nekusar deck.

Unfortunately Echo Mage does not belong in a Nekusar deck. You need to invest a total of nine mana before you can copy a Winds of Change or Burning Inquiry. Almost all of that is blue which can be quite demanding on a three colored deck.

It is quickly becoming bulk and I do not see any reason for it not to.

Weekend Recap for 5/31/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Martyr’s Bond (Commander)
From $1.74 to $2.00 (14.94%)

I got really excited when I read this the first time. I dreamed of a Grave Pact effect that could extend to all sorts of permanents.

Using a Planeswalker’s ultimate ability would get rid of opposing Planeswalkers.

Artifacts and enchantments could be sacrificed for good effect.

That is magical Christmas land. If someone wants to trade you for this at $2 then I say jump at it.

It is too expensive and unreliable unless you build combos around it. You could usually just use Planar Cleansing to get the desired effect without all of the work.

The name is generic enough that this could show up in any set. I think the honeymoon is over.

9. Apocalypse (Tempest)
From $3.09 to $3.59 (16.18%)

It is a rare from an old set on the reserve list. It has a massive impact in multiplayer games and it currently buylists for $0.24 more than you can buy it for.

I would grab as many $2 copies as you could find before everyone updates the price to $4.

8. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $2.29 to $2.73 (19.21%)

He is a great budget Commander from a set that was printed long ago. He has an interesting effect and works well with other Commanders has well. His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental products.

He can still be found for $1.48 and Buylists for almost $2.

I really cannot make a better recommendation than that.

Remember he is insane as a build around me or as the Commander for a Shadowborn Apostle decks. The Apostles will be rotating soon. I would look to grab as many as you can find if they dip in price.

7. Nin, the Pain Artist (Commander)
From $2.68 to $3.31 (23.51%)

Every time I read this card I want to play it with Stuffy Doll and Mogg Maniac.

All of the original Commanders are being targeted due to scarcity and growth in the interest in the format.

She can get you cards, play as repeatable removal and is one of the many cards that is only better with Nekusar.

Due to only using two instead of three colors she is easier to reprint as Basandra, Battle Seraph has shown us in Conspiracy.

Nin, the Pain Artist is still priced to move. I would look at Ruhan of the Fomori and Zedruu the Greathearted for other cheap Commanders with room to grow.

6. Konda’s Banner (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $4.07 to $5.13 (26.04%)

This is an excellent Commander card. You always have a Legendary creature ready to equip it that shares a color with every other creature in your deck.

Even with a minor tribal thing this can be very helpful.

This has been growing slowly but steadily until recently.

It is difficult to reprint outside of a supplemental product because its name is tied to a character on a very unpopular plane.

This is something I would be glad to have in my trade binder.

There is a negative spread on this which is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage or aggressive growth in the near future.

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $9.99 to $13.14 (31.53%)

Courser of Kruphix has been making its mark on Standard and Legacy.

Courser and Domri Rade or Archangel of Thune can make for some exciting turns.

It has also been played to good effect in Modern Jund decks.

This is part of what has pushed it to the next level. It requires a heavy commitment to green or excellent mana fixing so I think it will definitely surpass $15 but I don’t think it will hit the $20 mark without some serious help from M15.

Born of the Gods will not be drafted as heavily as normal with Conspiracy being such a hyped event. I think this will help Courser of Kruphix.

I would sell into the hype just after it crests $15. You make not make all of the money but if you got these in a draft or back when these were $5 to $6 you should be sitting pretty.

I would hold onto foils for Modern as those keep their value better.

4. Memory Jar  (Urza’s Legacy)
From $4.22 to $5.59 (32.46%)

What can I say about a card so powerful it was the subject of an emergency ban mere weeks after it was printed?

It is somehow so broken that it made it into From the Vault: Relics despite being on the reserved list.

It is restricted in Vintage but for is legal in Commander.

It is completely insane in normal situations but when you make each player draw seven cards Nekusar the Mindrazer starts salivating.

This no longer enables crazy combos. Now it enables widespread death and destruction.

Many players of MTGO will be giving this card a spin as part of Vintage Masters and that can only enhance interested.

I don’t think you can lose trading for these. They will always have a home in Cubes and Vintage.

3. Breathstealer’s Crypt (Visions)
From $0.99 to $1.36 (37.37%)

This little known rare from Visions is on the reserved list. Most people (myself included) did not even remember that it exists.

It is excellent for a Nekusar the Mindrazer Commander deck but also works in other Dimir or Grixis Control decks.

It has only started getting attention and some places still have it listed below dollar. Others have it as $2 on its way to $3.

It currently has a negative spread meaning some Buylists are paying more than the lowest price you can purchase it at.

We have already seen Nekusar cause rises in price in a number of rares and this one can still be found cheap.

I would suggest striking while the iron is hot.

2. Nether Shadow (5th Edtion)
From $2.30 to $3.29 (43.04%)

Manaless Dredge continues to be one of the most affordable ways to give Legacy a try. It works on a completely different axis as most decks.

Instead of generating card advantage through drawing cards it actively tries to mill its entire deck then Dredge Return a Flayer of the Hatebound in a gigantic Golgari Grave-Troll.

It has some ways to fight through traditional graveyard hate like Deathrite Shaman and makes your opponents Wastelands look like a joke.

Nether Shadow and an ever increasing graveyard make playing cards like Cabal Therapy and Dread Return easy to do.

I expect all of the cheaper components of the deck to continue to rise as this deck catches on.

The deck plays a lot of commons, uncommon and budget rares. I would grab some cheap foils like Flayer of the Hatebound and Balustrade Spy. Their effects are essential to the deck and difficult to replace.

1. Decree of Pain (Commander’s Arsenal)
From $6.94 to $9.99 (43.95%)

When you are building a Cube or making a Commander deck you want powerful and unique cards that jump out and make a splash. There are few ways to shift the momentum of a game than to wipe the board and load up your hand at the same time.

Both of these formats love their foil cards and there are only two ways to get your fix.

You can get the original Scourge foil or for a third the cost you can get the new artwork from Commander’s Arsenal.

I had discounted this card because of the amount of copies flooding the market from the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck. They were not foil but they were exerting a lot of downward pressure on the existing copies.

Once players get into the format after tinkering with their ninety eight card decks they want to start pimping their decks. When they do this will be the copy they target.

I see this one continuing to climb. There are still some other targets from Commander’s Arsenal that are available at low costs. I am looking at possible Commanders Vela the Night-Clad, Diaochan, Artful Beauty and Edric, Spymaster of Trest which has been seeing some Legacy play and has come down considerably recently.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Necropotence (5th Edition)
From $8.39 to $7.86 (-6.32%)

Last week I said the only foil copy of this card was the one from From the Vault: Exiled.

Several readers kept me honest by reminding me that the Deckmasters copy has the original art and is one of the few foils printed in that set. Thank you readers!

This card was recently reprinted online in Vintage Masters. It is a great candidate for any monoblack build in Cube or Commander. It is restricted in Vintage but any casual deck will welcome it through the end of time. I see this as a hiccup.

It is a part of Magic’s history as well as being completely broken. This will always be a safe buy and hold.

4. Mutavault (M14)
From $29.40 to $27.48 (-6.53%)

Mutavault has been one of the most played cards its entire time in Standard. It was around $33 before it was reprinted in M14 and I think that price memory counts for a lot.

It is still used in several Modern decks including Merfolk, Faeries and others.

I don’t think it will have quite as rocky a road as most cards do upon rotation but I think picking them up at $15 to $20 around rotation is quite realistic.

Anyone who plays Standard but not Modern will probably be trying to get these out of their binders soon. This could be a good opportunity for someone who is willing to wait a few years for prices to get above $30 again.

3. Misdirection (Mercadian Masques)
From $29.98 to $27.54 (-8.14%)

This rare is played a surprise in Legacy decks like Sneak and Show and Cephalid Breakfast.

Your LGS is about to get an influx of them as Conspiracy is drafted.

I expect the original foils to retain most of their value but I suspect the regular printing will be taking a bath. I would move them sooner rather than later.

2. Domri Rade (Gatecrash)
From $19.99 to $17.37 (-13.11%)

Domri Rade still has some fight in him. As mentioned above he is best friends with Courser of Kruphix. They two together provide a stream of card advantage.

His time in Standard is coming to an end. He has not seen much adoption in Modern yet.

He is a strong planeswalker and will always retain some casual appeal but I expect him to dip below $10 in the coming months.

I would get rid of him.

1. True-Name Nemesis (Commander 2013)
From $29.98 to $24.78 (-17.34%)

True-Name Nemesis was recently featured in the winning deck in the SCG Somerset Legacy Open. There were ten out of a possible thirty two copies in the Top 8 alone.

So why the dip?

It’s been a rough month for the fish.

The first reason is simple supply and demand.

Stores can order two copies of Mind Seize for and three other Commander 2013 decks instead of just one of each. Wizards has made Mind Seize a box full of value but it is no longer a $20 bill sitting on the shelf that leaves you with ninety eight free cards.

The second reason is that Conspiracy has announced card called Council’s Judgement which can just exile him despite protection, shroud or hexproof. For the price of an Oblivion Ring you can vote for any nonland permanent and exile it in a duel.

I expect it to shake up the Legacy metagame.

True-Name Nemesis is still a strong player but the invulnerable just became vulnerable. The $40 days are over. I expect it to settle around $15 to $20 depending on the metagame.

Weekend Update for 5/26

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Mishra’s Factory
$66.51 to $76.37 (14.8%)

Mishra’s Factory was the original “man” land. It allowed players to cast Wrath of God and then animate the Factory and attack with a creature in control decks.

It is still used in Legacy as a play set in Pox and Standstill decks.

These decks try to keep the board clear of creatures through heavy disrutpion and get there with lands that can attack.

They have also seen the occasional 3-1 in MODO Legacy dailies.

The rise in popularity of UWR Miracles also has people experimenting with Factories in Stoneblade builds.

I advocate trading into the hype while people are brewing. If you can turn a play set of these into some duel lands I would not look back.

9. Temple of Plenty
$6.00 to $6.91 (15.2%)

Scrylands are more powerful than originally assumed. We have seen pros running twelve scrylands to help smooth draws and fix mana for three color decks.

Temple of Plenty has seen full adoption in Selesnya and Junk builds in Standard.

I think that the scrylands are well positioned for rotation once the shocklands leave Standard.

I would trade for them with emphasis on this, Temple of Malady, Temple of Enlightenment and Temple of Silence.

8. Urza’s Tower
$2.46 to $2.84 (15.5%)

Modern season is quickly approaching.

Putting together the Urzatron is powerful in any format. It can be tough to recover from a turn three Karn Liberated or Wurmcoil Engine.

Different builds can throw out an early Batterskull or Sundering Titan which make it difficult if not impossible for aggressive decks to recover.

If you play the Urzatron in Gruul, Blue, Azorius or other combinations you need to have a play set of each of the three lands.

The biggest thing holding them back is their five printings including Chronicles and Fifth Edition where they were common.

It still think they are good solid holds. Anyone thinking of playing in the Modern format should at least pick up a play set of each to have to play with.

They are not powerful enough to ban and the biggest risk I could see would be further reprints.

7. Winds of Change
$1.86 to $2.15 (15.6%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks continue to be popular and powerful. This is one of the most efficient ways to restock your hand and deal seven damage to each of your opponents.

There are still copies out there for less than a dollar. The spread on this card is less than a dime.

More Mind Seize decks will find their ways to retailers at the rate of two boxes per shipment.

That means more ninety-eight card commander decks than need tuning after True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix are sold.

These are still surprisingly easy to trade for and with such a low margin a pretty safe bet.

6. Necropotence (From the Vault: Exiled)
$14.97 to $17.97 (20.0%)

Necropotence is one the most powerful card engines every devised.

It is also one of the most iconic cards Wizards has ever printed.

This is the only foil copy available for Vintage or Cube players.

A lot of people are going to be playing with it in Vintage Masters online.

The beta shows the lowest price of $13 and the highest buylist of $10.

This shows a great deal of confidence in the growth of this card.

This is a great long term hold.

5. Apocalypse
$2.44 to $3.09 (26.6%)

This card is a rare from Tempest. That means there are not many out there. It is also on the reserved list so there will never be any more.

This card has a negative spread. You can buy it from one retailer and sell it to another at a profit.

This is as good a recommendation as I can possibly give.

Grab these any time you see them. They have probably been rotting in trade binders for years.

4. Tendo Ice Bridge
$3.59 to $4.58 (27.6%)

The power and flexibility of this land are considerable when you can reuse the counter using bouncelands and Amulet of Vigor. They are used as three of in that deck.

I have seen this card listed for $5 in a few places and some sites still have them for less than $3.

The beta on this card is only $0.42. That makes this a safe and smart target.

I would actively trade for these. The deck has already caused significant increases in the prices of Azusa, Lost but Seeking and Primeval Titan.

3. Urza’s Miter
$4.87 to $6.45 (32.4%)

This is all smoke.

I don’t think anyone is actually buying this card at this price.

I looked at ebay sales records and it looks like everyone is buying theirs for around $3. The highest buylist I see is $2.51 but most vendors are offering about a dollar less than that.

That tells me that there is not a lot of confidence in the price of this card.

It is an Antiquities rare on the reserved list but it really does not belong in any deck. It is a collector’s item but that does not explain the recent surge in interest it has seen.

Am I missing something here? Does anyone know what started this?

I honestly feel you could buy any early rare on the reserved list and it would be at least as valuable to you as this card.

For about the same amount you can get a Mana Matrix or Planar Gate.

Both of those are about as rare and have awesome applications in Commander or Cube.

2. Nether Shadow
$2.00 to $2.97 (48.5%)

Legacy Manaless Dredge is picking up in popularity and it shows.

Nether Shadow can safely be dredged away and will be back to fight, block or be sacrificed to Dread Return to reanimate Balustrade Spy or Golgari Grave-Troll.

The deck is a popular budget option for a format known for costing thousands of dollars to play competitively.

This deck can be put together for a little more than a preordered booster box of Conspiracy.

There are still a lot of budget cards in the deck that have room to grow.

Chancellor of the Annex is cheap and can keep opponents from landing a turn one Deathrite Shaman to attack your graveyard.

Flayer of the Hatebound is also a bulk card and adds a unique effect which can close games out of nowhere.

I expect the pieces of this deck to continue to grow as interest in Legacy grows.

1. Breathstealer’s Crypt
$1.21 to $2.00 (65.3%)

Here is a spec that I like!

Breathstealer’s Crypt is a rare from Visions. It is on the reserve list.

It gives you information. Everyone will know what everyone is drawing. It costs life or cards.

It is obvious what is going on with this card – it is the latest Nekusar target.

You make your opponents draw cards and drain their life anyway. You can deprive them of precious creatures and finish them off.

What is left for the Nekusar deck?

Kederekt Parasite, Otherworld Atlas and Reforge the Soul are all still bulk.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Boros Reckoner
$8.75 to $7.79 (-11.0%)

Pro Tour Journey into Nyx was not kind to the Minotaur Wizard.

The event came and went and not a single copy was found in the Top 8.

Even Monowhite Aggro and Boros Burn decks do not necessarily run him anymore.

The time to trade these away was a few months ago. Their only use was Standard and it has seen its day.

I would move them as quickly as possible because once rotation hits they will be bulk.

I would try to get scylands or even shocklands for them if you could.

4. Shatterstorm
$19.10 to $16.90 (-11.5%)

Shatterstorm is a powerful answer to Affinity decks in Modern and Legacy.

Unfortunately the popularity of these decks have waned as people have adjusted their sideboards.

This is part of the danger of investing in sideboard cards.

If they do too well then the threat is neutralized and demand sags.

This leaves and opening for the threat to return and for interest to rise again.

I would trade these away as it is on its way down. It jumped from $5 to $20 over the course of a few weeks. It has been trending down again.

Try to pick them up again once they drop below $10.

3. The Mimeoplasm (Commander’s Arsenal)
$13.75 to $12.00 (-12.7%)

We recently saw a burst in demand for Commanders. Every enemy wedge Commander that was under $10 was snatched up and an increase in price drove this card from $ $6 to $15 over night.

The frenzy is dying down and prices are settling.

The price has come down but it is stabilizing.

If you want a fun commander I would hold onto these. I expect the price the price to slowly start climbing from here. It just will not be at the rabid pace we have seen.

2. Shivan Reef
$7.99 to $6.88 (-13.9%)

Storm has been testing well in Modern. Shivan Reef helps fix mana and does not come into play tapped.

It has been steadily growing over the past few weeks. I would look at this as a speed bump.

Modern season is rapidly approaching. This could be a good opportunity to grab three or four if you are looking at playing UR Storm.

1. Oubliette
$9.35 to $7.21 (-22.9%)

Did you trade yours away yet? Everyone else is doing so.

It is an interesting card but not so powerful that I see a strong reason for the price.

If you want to exile a creature in black we now have Silence the Believers and Gild. I think this will just continue to decrease in value.