By Guo Heng Chin

It has begun. The first set of spoilers for the dragoniest dragon-filled set started spilling out of the Dragon Tempest yesterday, as we traveled back to the present, changed timeline in a plane of Tarkir ruled by dragons rather than khans.  I have not been so excited for a new set before; it’s a whole set filled with dragons! It’s like a manifestation of my wildest dreams when I first started Magic as a 10-year old kid.

I imagine quite a number of players around the world share the same sentiment as me in regards to Dragons of Tarkir. After all, dragon is by far the most popular creature type among the player base:

Players like Dragons. Really like Dragons. No, really, really like Dragons. They are by far the most popular creature type we do. It’s the reason, for example, we made the first From the Vault box set with a dragon theme.

– Mark Rosewater

Cute or Playable?

Dragons has always been the domain of casuals and Timmies. Since Brian Kibler made top four of Pro Tour Chicago in 2000 with Rith, the Awakener and earned the venerable title of Dragonmaster, dragons have rarely graced the top tables, let alone tournament tables. We saw incessant caws, but no dragons.

It all changed with Thundermaw Hellkite in 2012.

“My goal was to create a Dragon that was to Dragons what Baneslayer Angel was to Angels. I wanted the set to have a Dragon that set the standard for a badass Dragon.”

– Doug Beyer, Lead Designer, Magic 2013

And a badass dragon Thundermaw Hellkite was. After an initial lull during its first six months of existence in a meta highly saturated with Snapcaster Mage and Vapor Snag, Thundermaw became a Standard staple ran in playsets across numerous archetypes and its price peaked at $40  for a couple of months.

Stormbreath Dragon came next. Being under Thundermaw ‘s shadow wasn’t easy, but Stormbreath Dragon’s initially cool reception thawed off as it proved to be the curve-topper of choice for decks with access to red. After all, a 4/4 hasty flier with protection from white and an option to transform into a gigantic 7/7 can’t be too bad. Stormbreath even saw occasional Modern play.

All Hail the Dragonlord

Will Dragons of Tarkir bring us more playable dragons? The design vision extolled in Mark Gottlieb’s article certainly suggested so.

It has been less than 24 hours since the Dragons of Tarkir hype engine started revving, and we already have a very playable dragon in the form of a wizened Silumgar:

Playable casting cost? Certainly. Playable stats? Let see, Dragonlord Silumgar dodges Elspeth, Sun’s Champion (again. Sorry Ms. Tirel), he dodges Stoke the Flames and wins a head on collision with Stormbreath Dragon and Wingmate Roc. Heck, Silumgar could even chump Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang (Vorthoses would know) all day long. Well, devour is probably a more suitable word here, seeing that Dragonlord Silumgar has deathtouch. Playability checked.

Awesome enter the battlefield ability? Dragonlord Silumgar is Sower of Temptation on steroids. If you can’t kill em’ steal em’. Sleazy Silumgar allegedly has the charisma to persuade even the game-breaking Ugin, the Spirit Dragon and Elspeth, Sun’s Champion to his cause.

Dragonlord Silumgar is the ideal card to break open those grindy midrange and control mirrors. He is not just an answer, but also a formidable threat by himself and I imagine plenty of games would be decided by a topdecked Dragonlord Silumgar stealing an opposing planeswalker.

There is a good probability that Dragonlord Silumgar will see play in Standard. For a card chock full of value, he seems to be a perfect fit in Sultai Lord Gerard Fabiano’s Sultai Control that aims to outgrind opponents in value.

Silumgar’s flexible enter-the-battlefield trigger and his stats that enable him to take down most popular standard fatties could warrant a couple of mainboard slots, but I don’t imagine seeing decks go for the full playset due to Silumgar’s high casting cost. But I could be wrong.  Silumgar makes for a pretty good sideboard card as well, both in UB Control and Sultai variants.

While I am confident about Dragonlord Silumgar’s Standard playability, I am doubtful about his place in Modern. Six casting cost is just much of an investment, especially with all the Path to Exile flying around. That is assuming that Gerard Fabiano does not break it. After all he just took down StarCityGame’s first Modern Open at Baltimore with Sultai. Can that man ever lose with Sultai?

The Price of a Dragonlord

Dragonlord Silumgar is currently going for $9 on ChannelFireball, $10 on StarCityGames and closing at $11 – 13 on eBay.  Which seem a bit on the cheap side to me. Dragons of Tarkir will be drafted for just eight weeks before Modern Masters 2015 hit the shelves on 22 May.

For the purpose of calculation, let’s assume that Dragons of Tarkir-Fate Reforged draft would grind to a halt when Modern Masters 2015 is released. That means we would have opened eight weeks worth of Dragons of Tarkir and 17 weeks worth of Fate Reforged. As we would be drafting two Dragons of Tarkir with a single Fate Reforged booster, the number of Dragons of Tarkir booster opened would be about the same as the number of Fate Reforged boosters over their draft span.

Another thing to note is that while the one in eight packs probability of opening a mythic is the same in both large and small sets due to the different size of print sheets used in large and small sets, the probability of opening a particular mythic is lower in a large set. Small sets contain ten mythics while large sets have fifteen.

That means Dragonlord Silumgar, and other mythics in Dragons of Tarkir would be opened less than Fate Reforged mythics! Because we are opening two packs of Dragons for each pack of Fate Reforged, it is easy to mistakenly assume that the supply of a particular Dragons of Tarkir mythic would be higher than those in Fate Reforged.

Watch out for the price of any playable Dragonlords.

If Dragonlord Silumgar turns out to be Standard playable as predicted, a $15 tag would not be too far-fetched.

Another reason $10 seems too cheap for Dragonlord Silumgar is the fact that he is an Elder Dragon creature type. There have only been five creatures in existence that are of the hallowed Elder Dragon creature type; there are more Gods than there are Elder Dragons. Dragonlord Silumgar being an Elder Dragon is a big flavor-win and I do imagine that  fact alone would exude a higher than usual level of appeal to the casual crowd. And we all know never to underestimate casual demand as a price driver.

On the other side of the casual demand coin, I struggle to picture Dragonlord  Silumgar as a popular Commander. I can see him as on of the 99, but his ability does not feel abusable in Commander.

Too bad Elder Dragon Highlander evolved into Commander years ago. Imagine the price of foil Dragonlord Silumgars if we were still playing according to the original Elder Dragon Highlander rules where you can only use Elder Dragons as your ‘commander’.

Being an Elder Dragon does have one gameplay downside; my Cavern of Souls will no longer be a catchall in my dragon-centric Commander deck.

I was wrong about that. Reader kraeuterbuddha pointed out Mark Rosewater’s answer on the topic: turns out that Elder Dragons are considered both ‘Elder’ and ‘Dragon’ when it comes to their creature type. Thanks kraeuterbuddha!

Thundermaw… I mean Thunderbreak

The English card image is not up yet as of writing. The text is as follows, courtesy of MythicSpoiler.com:

Let’s see, it’s a  4/4 flying body at playable casting cost that trades up with Stormbreath and Wingmate Roc (3/4 seems to be a lousy spot to be in a dragon-filled Tarkir) and trades on parity with Butcher of the Horde, which is harder to cast.

Thunderbreak Regent also Lightning Bolts opponents who attempts to remove it out of creature combat or mass removal. It is a threat the deals damage, regardless whether it is answered or not, the kind of cards that puts your opponents in a catch-22 situation.

I am no red mage, but Thunderbreak Regent sounds like a pretty good card in aggressive red decks as a follow up to Flamewake Phoenix, not to mention it triggers Flamewake’s ferocious too. Thunderbreak would be a superior choice over Ashcloud Phoenix for decks aiming to achieve the highest damage possible in the least number of turns.

Thunderbreak Regent’s price trajectory would probably be similar to that of Flamewake Phoenix: starting at around$4-$5 before settling down at $2-$3.

The Hype Train Continues…

The next couple of weeks look to be a two week-long Christmas as Wizards drop a dragon or two down our chimney, when the clock strikes 0800 PST every day.

Will the enemy-colored fetchlands finally see a reprint in Dragons of Tarkir? Certain passages from last week’s A Tarkir of Dragons hints at enemy-colored fetches in Dragons of Tarkir as it is an alternate timeline. Are we going to see enemy-colored fetches with a reversed version of the flavor texts in the ally-colored fetches as suggested by Redditor /u/daberu?

The revelation that Dragons of Tarkir will feature ally-colored pairs certainly hurt the probability of seeing enemy-colored fetches in Dragons of Tarkir. The initial idea was to have enemy-colored clans, but it was changed to create a fresh draft experience; would there be a chance that the fetchlands remained?

I also agree that from a financial perspective, there is little excuse for Wizards to include magic sales-bullet in a set that is pretty much going to fly off the shelves. Because dragons.

I guess we would find out in a week or two if we would be cracking Scalding Tarns and Verdant Catacombs in Dragons of Tarkir Standard.

Also, are we going to get a Narset planeswalker? And another Sarkhan!

With the pervasiveness of Dragons in the set, is it too much to hope for a tiny, three casting cost legendary dragon? I bet there were plenty of other players besides me whose wildest (Magic) fantasy was a dragon set and that came true. Is it too wistful to wish for a legendary dragon that I can use as my leader in Tiny Leaders? Would the Dragonlords not need to groom their royal successors from a tender young age?

In the mean time, we shall wait and see what the dragon tempest brings us daily. I for one welcome our Dragonlords.

By Guo Heng Chin

Four weeks ago I wrote an article about Tiny Leaders potentially being the next big thing in Magic. What I did not expect was Tiny Leaders to undergo a sort of Cambrian explosion within just a couple of weeks.

In Malaysia, we had our first Tiny Leaders tournament at the end of January, with a whooping 15 players in attendance.

For the past few weeks, whenever I popped by a local game store, I would overhear players discussing Tiny Leaders or witness Tiny Leaders games taking place. And I have visited at least three different stores catering to starkly different player bases.

It was a pleasant surprise to see some of the local PPTQ grinders getting into Tiny Leaders too. The format’s appeal to the casuals and spikes alike is important for the Tiny Leaders to be considered sufficiently differentiated from existing formats so as to warrant a niche of its own. Without a defined niche, Wizards would have little reason to adopt Tiny Leaders as an official format, together with annual product releases.

Elsewhere around the world, the enthusiasm for Tiny Leaders hit fever pitch. The first streamed Tiny Leaders league began three weeks ago, organised by /u/SaintOmerville and his playgroup at Maryland (Check them out at /r/TinyLeaders, they stream weekly).

Dark Sphere, the awesome LGS I used to frequent when I lived in London ran their first Tiny Leaders FNM a few days ago, to a pretty good turnout of 14 players. Kyle Lopez, the guest on last week’s Brainstorm Brewery pointed out that the Tiny Leaders craze hit his local game store as well.

Those were just drop in the wave of Tiny Leaders hype that swept through the Magic community in the past month and I am sure there are plenty of other Tiny Leaders stories elsewhere.

However, nothing could be a better testament of Tiny Leaders’ growing popularity than a feature article dedicated to the format on the Mothership by the inimitable Gavin Verhey.

Last but not least, we saw a spate of Tiny Leaders foils spiking over the previous month. Foils of Ezuri, Renegade Leader, Varolz, the Scar-Striped and Ambassador Laquatus, three popular tier one leaders, doubled in price together with cards like Leonin Shikari which are playable in both Commander and Tiny Leaders.

An Empirical Opinion on the Format

Last weekend, I participated in my second Tiny Leaders tournament. It was an eight-person tournament, featuring a diverse field comprising of the following leaders:

• 1 x Anafenza, the Foremost (me)
• 2 x Alesha, Who Smiles at Death
• 1 x Merieke Ri Berit
• 1 x Ezuri, Renegade Leader
• 1 x Grenzo, Dungeon Master
• 1 x Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
• 1 x Selvala, Explorer Returned

I went 2-0, beating Ezuri and Grenzo and splitting with Alesha in the finals to ensure that we both secure a 5x multiplier for our entry fee in store credit as prize. Anafenza turned out to be an unintentionally good meta call as two out of the three decks I faced (Grenzo and Alesha) relied on graveyard mechanics and Anafenza’s second, less conspicuous ability swung a wrecking ball to their game plan.

I’ve used the store credit to buy myself a playmat tube for the Ugin Game Day playmat I won last weekend and two Tiny Leaders foils which I would discuss in a bit.

A few thoughts about the format after two tournaments (hooray):

Removals are efficient but sparse in Tiny Leaders due to the singleton restriction. In most of the games I’ve played, my Dark Confidant stuck around longer than he would have in other formats. His value in the format was comparatively higher than in say, Modern, due to his reduced fragility. I suspect there are quite a number of other cards which could be evaluated differently for the same reason.

The limited removals mean that creature-based combos are easier to pull off. I shall get to this in a bit.

The second observation was that the threat of Geist of Saint Traft and Ezuri, Renegade Leader was overblown. Well, at least from the small sample size of matches I have played against them.

Geist lacks removals and the deck struggle with board control. I’ve found it relatively easy to brute force your way through their counterspells and removals and develop a board position that makes it difficult for Geist to attack or race them. Tempo is the key to beat Geist.

Ezuri Elfball is explosive but well-timed removal of their key components is a big set back for their game plan. Ezuri’s ability to regenerate another elven brethren was not as incessant as I thought it to be, but that could be attributed to the fact that Abzan removals – Swords to Plowshares, Smother and Dismember from the mainboard; Zealous Persecution, Drown in Sorrow and Golgari Charm from the sideboard – leave no room for regeneration shenanigans.

The health of the format is a controversial topic. There are segments of players complaining about the lack of diversity among tier one leaders and the repetitiveness of the format.

From my very statistically significant sample size of 7 matches across two tournaments, I’ve found the diversity to be pretty good. As the optimal build for the majority of the leaders have yet to be discovered, perhaps it is too early to claim that there are too few tier one decks. I suspect there are plenty of yet-to-be-recognised tier one decks out there, and the current playes

Yes, Tiny Leaders feels repetitive if you compare it to Commander, but it is no more repetitive than Modern in my opinion. Which is a good thing as Tiny Leaders was designed to be a duel format. I would consider Tiny Leaders to be less repetitive compared with Standard, offering a similar level of game play diversity as Modern (I have not played enough Legacy to compare Tiny Leaders with it).

This Week’s Tiny Pick Ups

Initially my plan for the Tiny Leaders finance series was to make my way down the color pie with every installment of the series à la the undervalued Commander foils series I embarked on a while back.

That schedule may work for undervalued Commander foils as cards in the format have largely settled in price with Commander being a relatively mature format. Tiny Leaders is a young format and as such brewers and players are still in the process of exploring new deckbuilding spaces and discovering new interactions.

Doing a series of article about undervalued Tiny Leaders cards by color would probably miss the boat on a lot of…well, undervalued cards which I imagine would spike once word about a new tech gets out.

So I am going to give this series a bit of a shake-up; I will be looking a few cards in each installment, but they would be in no particular order. I will write about undervalued cards as I encounter them; it would do you readers no justice if I were to hold back on discussing a card I think is sorely undervalued  just to follow a self-imposed order. We’re going to introduce a little bit of anarchy.

The first two cards we are looking at today are the two foils I’ve bought with the store credit I won at last weekend’s Tiny Leaders tournament. They are two cheap foils (the playmat tube took up the bulk of the store credit) with plenty of room to grow.

I am convinced that Cartel Aristocrat foils at $2 are good pick ups. She functions as an engine in a couple of Tiny Leaders archetypes: she is a powerful gear in the Athreos, God of Passage machine and is a token factory in Teysa, Orzhov Scion decks.

Cartel Aristocrat is also one of the best engine for the Melira combo, which was by far the most impressive aspect of my Anafenza deck and is a combo that I am confident should be a mainstay in the format.

I threw in the Melira combo when I was constructing my Anafenza list as a plan B to give the deck an extra angle of attack (decks that attack on multiple axes are good, said a certain Gerry Thompson). It was supposed to be the gear I shift to after I’ve exhausted my opponent’s removals, or when my opponent inadvertently taps out.

Turns out not only did I leaned on the combo more than I had imagined, I won half my games with it. While Anafenza has access to some of the best removals in the format, those removals are often 1-for-1 removals and the struggles if an opponent gets too far ahead in tempo or overwhelms the board with cheap minions. Anafenza is a fair deck after all.

The Melira combo stole me countless games where I was not supposed to win. It won me a game when I was staring down an unblockable Geist of Saint Traft with lethal the next turn. It won me a couple of game ones against Ezuri when I do not have access to board wipes. Gaining infinite life was the only way I can snatch the upper hand against Alesha’s recurring horde.

I eschewed Blood Artist as an enabler to close the game once I’ve achieved the infinite loop as he is a bad card outside the combo. Plus, with a Green Sun’s Zenith in my deck, I would not deck out.

In the end, Anafenza – my list at least – played out like Patrick Dickmann’s Tempo Twin. Neither plan of efficient beatdown or Melira combo is the main plan; it depends on the matchup and my opening hand. Although when I find myself losing grip of the board, I often switch to defensive mode and attempt to stall the game until I rip the combo pieces. With three tutors, it was relatively easy to assemble the pieces.

Another reason the Melira plan worked better than I had envisioned during deckbuilding was the fact that removals are limited in Tiny Leaders, as I’ve mentioned.

The combo complements Anafenza strategies because every creature in the deck demands an answer or it would out-card advantage the opponent out of the game, grow out of proportion with Anafenza’s  ability and Gavony Township, or even by itself as Scavenging Ooze scavenges, Knight of the Reliquary with every fetchland and Varolz, the Scar-Striped… well scavenges. Even a lowly 1/1 spirit token could evolve into a formidable threat if left untouched.

My opponents’ removals were often spread thin and it was relatively easy to execute the Melira combo.

That was a bit of a detour. Back to Cartel Aristocrat. She is a perfect fit in Anafenza decks sporting the Melira combo because she is both hard to remove and useful regardless of the combo. The deck has so many ways to plop on +1/+1 counters on Cartel Aristocrat she often becomes a formidable threat by herself.

Besides Varolz and noncreature options like Recurring Nightmare, Viscera Seer is the only other free-to-activate sac outlet in Abzan colors but Seer is a waste of space without the combo as we already have access to plenty of library manipulation.

To sum it up, Cartel Aristocrat has the potential to be a staple in three Tiny Leaders archetypes, two of which are tier one archetypes. Foils at $2 are enticing, especially when the card is in no risk of reprint within the next few years.

The second foil I bought with my store credit was Anax and Cymede. Chaz Volpe from BoltSnapBolt mentioned a week ago that he picked up a few foil copies of Anax and Cymede and I thought that was a fantastic pick up.

Anax and Cymede is (or are? Grammar gets complicated when there are more than one person in a card but the creature type denotes a singular entity. I shall resort to ‘is’ here and consider Anax and Cymede so inseparable they form a single entity) reputedly a tier one leader and more importantly, looks to be a budget tier one leader. Foil copies could be found for a mere $1.50 and really only have room to grow as Theros supply dries up and Tiny Leaders demand kicks in.

While the majority of the elves in Ezuri Elfball are cheap, an optimal build requires Gaea’s Cradle and Glimpse of Nature and both will set you back by $200.

On the other hand, an optimal Anax and Cymede list could be assembled on a budget and there are multiple build options to choose from; either the hyper-aggressive swarm build, or the good stuffs build as the color grants access to some of the best removals and board wipes in the format and Blood Moon.

Speaking of board wipes, the next card we are going to look at is a Modern staple with Tiny Leaders application and foils are cheap right now.

Anger of the Gods was a Modern sideboard staple when Birthing Pod was legal, but has dipped in popularity since. Which is a good thing financially as it means that foil Anger of the Gods would not spike yet. The Modern meta is cyclical and there would be a time again when Anger of the Gods will once again be a sideboard staple.

In the mean time, Anger of the Gods is one of the best board wipes in Tiny Leaders. Its exile clause hoses popular graveyard-abusing leaders like Alesha and Varolz, while serving as an efficient answer to swarm decks (Anger of the Gods deals the most damage at three mana compared with other sweepers in the format).

Ironically, red is the control color in Tiny Leaders courtesy of the number of board wipes under four casting cost in the color (red has access to a plethora of X-casting cost board wipes). At $8, Anger of the Gods foils look like a surefire pick up.

#MtgoTinyLeaders

Though more shops are jumping on the Tiny Leaders bandwagon (at least in Kuala Lumpur and London), one of the major drawbacks of Tiny Leaders is that the format can’t be enjoyed on Magic Online.

Which is a shame because Tiny Leader also appeals to the demographic of players that would play Magic Online on a regular basis.

Plus Tiny Leaders is well-suited for Magic Online play, unlike Commander where playing online strips off the social camaraderie aspect of it (and Commander is a social game, isn’t it). Players would not lose any of the fun, nor have to suffer a compromised user interface playing Tiny Leaders online.

Thanks to Modern Masters and Vintage Masters, a lot of Tiny Leaders staples are much cheaper on Magic Online compared with their physical counterparts. Which makes it even more of a shame that we are not able to jam Tiny Leaders on Magic Online!

It is true that Commander was only made available on Magic Online after the release of the first official Commander products. That does not mean we have to wait until the format is officially picked up by Wizards before we can sling Tiny Leaders online.

The infrastructure is already present. All it requires is a the removal of Commander damage, reduction of the number of cards required in the mainboard to 49, decreasing the starting life to 25, adding a sideboard and tweaking the ban list a little. Having little technical knowledge, I would not claim to be privy the difficulty of implementing those changes, but one could reasonably assume that it would be less difficult than enabling Commander on Magic Online. The addition of a ten-card sideboard may be a complication as I believe your Commander resides in your sideboard in the current implementation of Commander on Magic Online.

Getting Magic Online to support Tiny Leaders would allow more players to get into the format, and enable competitive players to practice online. Magic Online support would be a huge driver for the growth of the format.

Wizards has a history of being responsive to the Magic community’s wishes, an extremely rare trait in a large corporation, and is one of the main reason why Magic is flourishing at the heights it is at today.

If you would like to see Tiny Leaders on Magic Online, do make your desire known to the various powers above at Wizards through social media. Most of the management at Wizards are highly engaged with the Magic community, especially on Twitter and anyone with a Twitter account could get in touch with them there.

Those I would recommend are Magic Online’s official account: @MagicOnline; Magic Online’s Director of Products, Worth Wolpert’s account: @mtgworth and possibly some the other directors that deal with paper Magic like Helene Bergeot, the Director of Global Organized Play: @HeleneBergeot and Aaron Forsythe, the Director of R & D: @mtgaaron to let them know that there are a lot of enthusiasm for Tiny Leaders.

Let’s start a little social media campaign. Use the hashtag #MtgoTinyLeaders so we all have one cohesive platform to push for Tiny Leaders on Magic Online.

Leave your comments below, or find me on Twitter @theguoheng.

By Guo Heng Chin

A couple of days ago, I saw this on  my Twitter feed:

Ok #mtgfinance, can someone write an article comparing Thoughtseize with another Modern staple that rotated out of Std? S.oze? Abrupt Decay?

— Robobear (@Robobear82) February 12, 2015

@Robobear82‘s request couldn’t have come at a better time with Theros block staples having just seven more months of Standard play. @Robobear82 called for a Batman #mtgfinance writer and he shall get one.  

Today we will be discussing a Magic finance fundamental: the price trajectory of Standard-legal Modern staples and when to pick them up.

Historically, the price of Standard staples from the previous block began their downward spiral around this time of the year, all the way through summer until the end of their lifespan in Standard (Although this year may be slightly different due to the new preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier system, but that’s not what we would be discussing today).

The conventional wisdom would be to pick up Standard staples for casual use or investment around rotation in September. However, as all know that Modern staples are the exception.

So when then is the best time to pick up Modern staples that are currently Standard legal? Or rather, when is a good time to pick up this card:

Thoughtseize was one of the most iconic discard spell ever printed in the history of Magic. Ravaging hands since 2007, Thoughtseize saw play in every single format it was legal in, including the hallowed halls of Vintage, and Commander (Duel Commander counts as Commander right).

Thoughtseize’s cross-format ubiquity and popularity in Modern (mtgtop8 ranked Thoughtseize as the 23rd most played card in Modern in 2014 – just two places behind Tarmogoyf – being present in 17.5% of Modern decks in an average of 3 copies) made it one of the most sought after Theros card.

As of writing, the Theros version of Thoughtseize stands at $19 while the Lorwyn copy hovers around $35, half of its previous high of $70. I am not sure if Thoughtseize would ever hit $70 again, but one thing for sure, that card is not going to remain at $19 a year or two down the road.

To answer our question on when is the best time to get in on Thoughtseize, let’s dig through time to have a look at how the window to pick up Modern staples evolved through the years.

The figures used in this article comes from mtgtop8.com’s format top cards list. The list describes the ubiquity of cards in each format and ranks cards by the percentage of decks in which a card was found in.

The First to Buck the Trend

Modern was announced in fall of 2011. The price of Zendikar fetchlands – which were played in every single format they were legal in – barely budged when Zendikar rotated out during the fall of 2011, unlike the rest of the standard staples from the same block. The blue fetches actually experienced a slight bump upon rotation.

The Zendikar fetches were a precursor to a new trend where the price of Standard staples that saw play in Modern, then still a fledgling format with an uncertain future (kind of like Tiny Leaders now. Shameless subliminal message plug) would not tank upon rotation.

The Last of the Invitationals

Snapcaster Mage was a Standard powerhouse, and although he was not as pervasive in Modern as he is today, Tiago Chan’s invitational card was already considered a Modern staple when Innistrad rotated in the fall of 2013 (in 2014, Snapcaster was the most played creature in Modern, and fifth most played card with a presence in 30.8% of Modern decks, compared with 2013 when he was the second most played creature, and eleventh most played card with a mere 25.1% saturation across Modern decks). We expected no less from a card that was initially designed to be a land that could counter spells!

Let’s have a look at Snapcaster Mage’s price trajectory during his final year in Standard:

Snapcaster trended down during the months preceding Innistrad’s rotation in September 2013 and touched $20 briefly in mid-August 2013. He hovered around $20 – $23 for five months after rotation. At the end of February 2014, Snapcaster Mage shot up to $40.

Patrick Dickmann’s Tempo Twin archetype which ran a playset of Snapcasters alongside the Splinter Twin plan was the breakout deck at Pro Tour Born of the Gods, putting the Tempo Twin archetype on the list of tier one Modern decks (though the deck debut in November 2013).

Snapcaster went down to $35 for the better part of 2014, but as of writing, seemed to be hitting a new ceiling of $45. Again in no small part due to Antonio Del Moral León taking down Pro Tour Fate Reforged with a Splinter Twin deck running three copies of Snapcasters in the main.

The window to pick up Snapcaster Mage would have been the seven month trough between July 2013 and February 2014, when he was fluctuating between $20 to $23.

All rare cards are rare, but some rare cards are rarer than others. Being two years older, Innistrad’s print run was not as high as Theros’ and as a result Snapcaster Mage has a relatively higher rarity than Thoughtseize in terms of supply rarity (last week’s Brainstorm Brewery’s Finance 101 segment dealt with this topic).

The Answer to Everything, Nearly

Abrupt Decay was printed just one year apart from Thoughtseize. and as far as I can recall, Return to Ravnica set a new precedent by being the first of the annual bestselling ever set, a testimony to either the burgeoning Magic playerbase or the fact that shocks sell.

Abrupt Decay enjoyed similar levels of multi-format permeation as with Thoughtseize and Snapcaster Mage, being casted in all formats it is legal in. After all, Abrupt Decay is the ultimate removal for any nonland permanents it could target.

In 2014, Abrupt Decay was present in 22.1% of Vintage decks, being played in Fish variants (sometimes up to a full four copies in the mainboard), Sultai tempo decks and Control. It was found in 18.9% of Legacy decks and was the 17th most played Modern card in 2014, with 20.7% of decks running it. Hey, its even a staple in the newest format on the block, Tiny Leaders.

The price trajectory of Abrupt Decay however, was different from Snapcaster Mage’s:

Abrupt Decay bottomed out in November 2013. Its price started ascending at the beginning of February 2014, hitting $10 in the middle of March before peaking at $15 in July and has been hovering around $12 since.

The demand from Abrupt Decay was most likely from non-rotating formats; it barely saw play in the trifecta Mono Black vs UW Control vs Mono Blue Return to Ravniva – Theros Standard. Abrupt Decay was the 67th most played card in Standard, with a saturation of just 7.9% of the field.

The window to pick up Abrupt Decay shut a whole six months earlier than Snapcaster Mage. The best time to up Abrupt Decay was the two month trough between December 2013 and February 2014.

Abrupt Decay could be picked up on the cheap nine to seven months before rotation, compared to Snapcaster Mage, who could still be found on the cheap two months before rotation and up to five months post-rotation.

One More Thing

Let’s look at the price history of one more fall set Modern staple that just rotated out:

While Steam Vents did not enjoyed the amount of play Snapcaster Mage and Abrupt Decay saw, Steam Vents was the third most played card in Modern in 2014, being tapped by a whooping 36.1% of decks.

Like Abrupt Decay, the best time to pick up your Steam Vents would have been between December 2013 and February 2014 when it was $7.50. There was a slight dip in the month before rotation, but Steam Vents never went below $9.

The Window for Thoughtseize

As we have seen in the price history of the few Modern cards above, the window, the window to get your hands on Standard-legal Modern staples is no longer a few months prior rotation.

Thoughtseize was at its bottom from July to September last year, fluctuating between $15 to $17. It went up after Ari Lax took down Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir with Abzan Midrange with four mainboard Thoughtseize and spent a couple of months above $20, but is now back at $19.

Based on the price history of Modern staples from the previous block, the window to stock up on your Thoughtseizes is probably right now.

There is one caveat: the upcoming Dragons of Tarkir Event Deck could potentially contain Thoughtseize, the way the Fate Reforge’s Clash pack contained  a copy of Hero’s Downfall, leading to a dip in the price of Hero’s Downfall right after the decklists were spoiled. If you want to be safe, you could wait until the decklist for Dragons of Tarkir’s Event Deck comes out, which should be in a few weeks time.

However,  getting in on an all-format all-star card at $19 seems pretty good. Thoughtseize could easily be a $40 card in the near future, and I think it’s worth the risk of losing a few bucks to an Event Deck reprint. If you have any questions or comments, you can find me on Twitter @theguoheng or just drop a comment below.

By Guo Heng Chin

Today’s article will kick off a series exploring undervalued Tiny Leaders cards. However as I have threw my hat into the proverbial ring in my pre-Pro Tour article last week and backed a number of cards as potential financial winners, I feel I ought to do a post-mortem on their results.

We have a new Modern Pro Tour champion (congrats to Antonio Del Moral León, the first Spanish Pro Tour champion) and a new Modern metagame. Travis Allen has an awesome Pro Tour analysis coming up tomorrow; I would just briefly go through the calls I’ve made in my article last week and discuss their performance.

Their results were grisly, but they were calls I’ve chose to make as a finance author and I think it is imperative for me to do a post-mortem on them, regardless of whether they soared or bored.

Post-mortem of My Pro Tour Calls

I am glad I decided to feature Amulet of Vigor as my first call based on Amulet Bloom’s performance in the young post-ban Modern metagame. It turned out to be my only call that spiked over the Pro Tour weekend as Amulet Bloom’s performance successfully ported over to the Pro Tour. Unfortunately, the rest of my calls barely saw play among the Pro Tour decks that finished with 18 points or more.

However, that does not mean they were all failed specs or sunken ships. I made those picks based on the fact that those were cards that were or still are Modern staples, or cards with power level ripe for Modern but has yet to find a home.

More importantly, the underlying thread of each call were the fact that they were all vastly undervalued at the time of writing. None had a price tag more than $10 and half of them were under $5, which made investing in them relatively low risk.

Moving forward, I would still consider them good pick-ups, as the Modern metagame is constantly evolving, and those cards are at a bottom right now.

Just picked up 40 Chord of Calling M15 at $3.25. This is the floor & it should find a home and a $10+ price tag within 2yrs #mtgfinance

— James Chillcott (@MTGCritic) February 7, 2015

Once upon a time when Lingering Souls was a pervasive threat, Thundermaw Hellkite was the apex predator in the metagame. As I mentioned in my article last week, the single driver that could make Thundermaw a format staple again is the prevalence of Lingering Souls.

There were 144 copies of Lingering Souls spread across 32% of decks at #PTFRF. Thundermaw Hellkite be like “Put me in, Coach!”.

— Dan A. (@dtg_mtg) February 9, 2015

Thundermaw Hellkite would have been good against a whooping 32% of the decks at the Pro Tour. I’ll let that thought linger here.

It’s going to be an unpopular opinion, but I think the Modern metagame took a step backward with the recent slate of bannings. 28% of the day two metagame comprising of Abzan reminded me of Jund’s level of dominance before Bloodbraid Elf was sent to the Undying Lands.

The second most successful deck, Burn occupied 12% of the day two metagame, nearly twice the number of the third most successful archetype, Infect. The top 8 metagame consisted of just four archetypes, which would have been acceptable for a Standard Pro Tour, but is not exactly the epitome of diversity in a non-rotating format with neartly 9000 cards. Perhaps the metagame still has space to evolve and we have yet to reach the peak diversity in the post-Birthing Pod ecosystem.

Enough about Modern, as I’ve mentioned, Travis has an awesome article lined up tomorrow on Modern finance, be sure to check it out.

Undervalued Cards in a New Format

I’ve written a primer on Tiny Leaders a few weeks back. Since then there has been some movements in the finances of a few cards which could have been driven by Tiny Leaders demand.

When I wrote about them  two weeks ago, foil copies Varolz, the Scar-Striped were just going for $3.50 and foil Ezuri, Renegade Leader were $5. 78. Today foil Varolzs are going for $9 and Ezuri foils skyrocketed to nearly $20.

I hesitate to call Tiny Leaders demand a market force to be reckoned yet, based on just two popular Tiny Leaders commander who saw their foil prices shoot up. Market correction could be a factor here: Ezuri foils were from a set released nearly five years ago and Varolz, while cheap, is one of best Golgari leader and he also fits into Abzan builds, one of the most powerful color combination in the format.

A good way to buy into a format on the cheap is to predict which cards are likely to become staples and buy into them when they are still cheap. I am going to embark on a Tiny Leaders series exploring undervalued cards, and today we shall begin with with undervalued white Tiny Leaders cards.

The boat has sailed for this one but it might be relevant for the first undervalued card I would be discussing. Foil copies of Leonin Shikari were going for $10 last month but doubled up early this month, while non-foil copies only moved from $5 to $7.

The spike is almost solely due to demand from Commander or Tiny Leaders. Besides the fact that the foil spiked by a larger margin than the non-foil, I have yet to see a Modern or Legacy deck running Leonin Shikari (and I suspect we are unlikely to see one) Leonin Shikari fits well in Nahiri, the Lithomancer Commander and the following leader:

Kemba, Kha Regent may not be a tier one deck (yet), but she is a popular leader, as far as the Tiny Leaders subreddit and Facebook group goes. I am not bullish on her normal copies as she was reprinted in Commander 2014, but Kemba’s single foil printing looks sweet at $4.61.

While foil Kemba would struggle to hit the heights Ezuri hit (Ezuri at $20 also seems like a bubble), she has a lot of room to grow at sub-$5. I would not be surprised to see her foils hit $10. As with all Scars of Mirrodin cards, Kemba is at risk of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. However, Modern Masters 2015 would have to feature an equipment theme for her to be included, something which I think is unlikely.

As mentioned, Kemba was just reprinted in Commander 2014. Unless Wizards thinks she is destined to be the next big thing in Modern, I would imagine the chances of her seeing reprint is relatively thin in the short-term.

That is all for today. Please accept my apologies for the shorter than usual article; things have been a little hectic over the past week. I have something nice in the pipeline for next Tuesday to make up to you readers.