Category Archives: The Gilded Goblin

Let’s Play Spike or Hype

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By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! As you may be aware these days cards seem to be spiking out of nowhere. Does the spike have merit, signaling a card has corrected itself in price? Is it just hype or a buyout where somebody thinks they struck gold but really it’s fools gold? Let’s take a look at the facts and try to analyze what’s going on here.

FNM Gitaxian Probe and New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe FOIL

I think that this spike, in terms of what it was versus what it became, is very shocking. FNM Probe’s started at $2.50-$3 in January, with a minor rise to $4-$5 until last week, to the current spiked price of $15. From January until now that is a 500% increase. Similarly, NPH Gitaxian Probe foils were $4-$6 back in January and now are around $30 on tcgplayer. I knew it was a solid target but at the same time I was surprised at how far these two versions jumped because the card is a common. However, it just goes to show you that rarer forms of commons can certainly hold a premium price if they are sought after enough. An extreme would be foil Japanese Brainstorm which is worth about $340.

In general, Twitter contains some solid advice if you are following the right people for magic finance. Back in January, Twitter got me thinking about Gitaxian Probe foils (I believe @JasonEAlt made this tweet but unfortunately I couldn’t find it.) When I saw tweets about FNM Gitaxian Probe and Foil New Phyrexia Gitaxian Probe being criminally underpriced I looked into it further.

After my research, I also thought it was a solid pick for two reasons. First is that it is played in both Modern and Legacy, which means that foil copies will retain demand over time from the eternal players that eventually like to foil out their decks. Second is that Phyrexian mana spells are really hard to reprint since it is such a set specific mechanic. Everyone remembers Mental Misstep, so due to that huge mistake I think that Wizards is very hesitant to bring a mechanic like this back.

I then went to TCGPlayer and saw tons of FNM copies listed at $2.50 per piece and NPH foil copies listed from $4-$6. I thought that this was a low price considering the amount of play the card was seeing and picked up my copies accordingly. I’ve had them ever since and am glad I was able to capitalize on the Twitter advice.

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Going forward I would say that the new price is going to stick especially for NPH foil copies. It is a card that is popular in both Legacy and Modern and I don’t see it going away for a long time due to it being a “free” spell.

Ancient Tomb

This spike, at least for me, was eerily similar to the Gitaxian Probe spike in terms of how I heard about it and the time it took from hearing that advice until the time that it decided to spike. Just like Gitaxian Probe, I first heard about Ancient Tomb on Twitter via the Brainstorm Brewery podcast. Being the counterpart to the other two-colorless land City of Traitors that is played in Legacy archetypes, they noticed that City of Traitors was $70 while Ancient Tomb was $10. Wasteland, which has gone over $130 recently, is a good example here of how underpriced Ancient Tomb was since it was from the same set. Although clearly Wasteland sees a ton more play than Ancient Tomb, $10 is quite low for a Legacy staple considering its power level.

Again, just like Probe, I checked out the price on TCGPlayer and the average in February was $10. Again, I picked up copies accordingly because I agreed that Ancient Tomb was popular and looked underpriced due to the play it was seeing. I regret not purchasing FTV: Realms copies of Ancient Tomb, since they are the only foil copy and have spiked way harder than the Tempest copies have.

For both, I believe that this new price is here to stay. A solid Legacy staple from an older set that will have a home in Legacy archetypes, it was only a matter of time before this happened.

Food Chain

Due to the hype that Food Chain received from being a playset in a namesake deck that came in 4th place at the recent SCG: Los Angeles Legacy Open on 3/23/2014, it is no surprise that others decided to buy in. It went from $5 to $13, which is interesting because the first time this card spiked is when Misthollow Griffin was first spoiled back in Avacyn Restored. Around then it jumped up to about $13 as well, but since no one could do anything with the deck at the time it dropped right back down to its original price of around $5 after several months. Now that a Misthollow Griffin deck featuring Food Chain has placed in a SCG Open Top 8, I believe the new price is here to stick and could even increase if the deck keeps seeing Top 8 or Top 16 appearances.

Besides Food Chain, other cards from this deck to watch include Manipulate Fate and Shardless Agent. Manipulate Fate may seem like a strange target but I like foil copies at $0.50. If others decide to build this deck, clearly $0.25 for an uncommon from a set as old as Invasion seems low. It wouldn’t hurt to pick up a playset for yourself if you plan on building this deck for a Legacy event. Shardless Agent has already proven itself as a solid card in Legacy, with an archetype to its name (Shardless BUG) and only one printing in a somewhat limited product. This new archetype could be what it takes to get the Agent over $20.

Autumn Willow

Huh, going from $1 or less to $5 suddenly seems strange for this Homelands rare. I’m guessing a buyout occurred on TCGPlayer where someone bought up all the copies in hopes of turning them around at a later point for profit. Unfortunately for them, this card just isn’t that good. I realize that is has pseudo-hexproof but it just can’t compete with the all the crazy new kids on the block these days. I’m not sure if it will be ever less than $2 due to rarity alone but it is certainly not worth $5 and definitely not worth buying in at this point.

Leonin Arbiter

Going from less than a $1 to $2-$3 may not be much of a spike but it is certainly a double up at the least. Leonin Arbiter is a fine card in the Modern Hatebear deck and even sees play from time to time in Legacy in Death and Taxes, although this appearance is much rarer than Modern. I can see why someone would be looking to pick these up. Though he isn’t as great as Thalia (which also has gone up recently) or Aven Mindcensor in Modern, he is still usually seen as a playset in the the Hatebear decks that do exist. Modern is still pretty wide open, so even though his price has already doubled I think he still has room for future growth. This current spike is just a price correction.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if he even climbed as high as $5 during Modern season if Hatebears puts up any Top 8 results. I wouldn’t actively trade for these guys as he plays a limited role in only one deck archetype and is from a fairly recent large set, but if you plan on playing Hatebears try to pick up your playset before Modern season goes into full swing.

 

Silent-Blade Oni & Ghostly Prison

I’ll lump these two together because they are both spiking cards that derive their demand largely from the casual market. Ghostly Prison does see play in Legacy and Modern from time to time but clearly its demand is 95% casual.

Ghostly Prison has demand but its price is contingent on when the next reprint happens. Stocking up on these and then seeing Wizards announce a product where it is reprinted will be bad for whoever decides to buy in at $7. Wizards has already reprinted Ghostly Prison three times so they have shown they want to get copies out there. Stay far away from this one, since there is almost no demand from the tournament scene and it could be reprinted at any time. If you have extra Prisons trade them into more solid long term gainers.

On the other hand, my first impressions of Silent-Blade Oni missed the mark. Silent-Blade Oni has a good chance of sticking to the new price. I now realize that since it only has one printing and utilizes the block specific mechanic Ninjutsu, there are only so many products that this guy could go into besides Commander or something similar. I wouldn’t expect him to go up in price again for quite a while since it already spiked last month. Even if it does spike again, you would be risking a lot for something where there is not a lot of money to be made. Clearly the casual market is a strong force but I would look to other targets as there is not really much money to be made here for the amount of time that you will need to wait and having the possibility of a reprint loom over your head.

  

Volcanic Island, Underground Sea, Plateau

Well, I think we’ve all seen this before. Starcity has a track record of raising their buylist prices on Legacy staples like dual lands in the hope that people will sell them what they have… only to then increase their store prices on those same dual lands by a huge margin to match the buylist increase. This is because they have a huge pulse on the market, being one of the top retailers of Magic products in the world, and use their inventory data to make price corrections based on the actual demand some of these cards are seeing so that they can capitalize off the demand.

If you’ve been playing this game long enough, dual lands going up in price should be no shock to you. Be aware that these days they can really go up a lot without much time for you to react and pick up them before the next spike. Long term, they are great gainers since the Reserved List guarantees that we won’t be seeing them or anything like them again.

I do share similar feelings with Travis about Modern replacing Legacy, and once that paradigm shift occurs I also agree that the dual lands won’t be the cards that go down. They’ll just teeter off, and go up slowly but surely like the Power 9 does over time. The takeaway here is that if you want dual lands you will need to budget, act according to your own needs, and develop a purchase plan if you are looking to eventually pick them up. I predict that they will spike a few more times before Modern replaces Legacy so the sooner you are able to act the better.

Final Thoughts

Here to Stay:
– Foil versions of Gitaxian Probe (FNM, New Phyrexia)
– Ancient Tomb
– Food Chain
– Leonin Arbiter
– Dual Lands

Ancient Tomb, Food Chain, and Leonin Arbiter are the shakiest inclusions for this category because of the reprint fear. However, for these three cards I don’t see that being a factor for quite some time. If you want to acquire them the new price is your reality and you won’t be getting a deal easily but they will trade well.

Risky:
– Ghostly Prison
– Silent-Blade Oni

Cards that derive their demand from the casual market and are reprintable are risky pickups. I would stay away from these, but if I see a good deal on them I would take it in the hopes of trading them for more solid gainers.

Stay Away:
– Autumn Willow

No real play, either in casual or tournament environments. Outclassed by newer cards with better effects. Acquire for gains at your own peril.

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The Most Expensive Deck in Magic

By: Jared Yost

*EDIT: Unfortunately, I was wrong when indicating that Beta is rarer than Alpha. From Twitter initial comments, I did research and found this article written by Chase Andres which explains how much rarer Alpha is than Beta. My apologies, I have updated the article with similar cards from Alpha instead of Beta when I could find an Alpha version that was worth more than a graded Beta version I had previously found.

ORIGINAL:

I decided to write an article this week on the premise “What is the most absurdly expensive deck that I could play a game of Magic with and still be competitive?”. The answer will definitely shock you. As I did the research for this article, it astounded me how many rare and hard to find cards exist within the Magic world. A lot of people know that Black Lotus exists and is rare, but did you know that there was a printing of Revised that was released early and then recalled to be destroyed? Did you know that some of it was not destroyed and instead still exists today? These cards do exist and it is known as Summer Magic. The prices of the cards from that set will absolutely floor you and I will get to that later.

Before I delve into the deck, I think the first question we’re all wondering is what playmat could we use for a deck truly fit for King Midas? May I suggest this one. According to the seller, this is the world’s rarest playmat, which seems fit for a deck that would truly be the world’s rarest deck.

Though at $350, this is chump change compared to what the deck I will lay out will cost you.

The format of the deck will have to be Vintage, not only for the Power 9 but also for several other cards that are hard to find and can only be played in Vintage. I am going to go with Sna Control, a deck used by Jacob Dunn from a recent GP Melbourne Side Event since it contains most of the P9 cards (which we can all agree are the most sought after collectable cards in the game) in addition to Jace, The Mind Sculptor and other stupidly expensive cards. This deck will showcase perfectly how expensive a Magic deck can get if you want to have the most awe-inspiring, ostentatious deck that you can imagine.

Also, anything that I would acquire from Alpha or Beta I will try to prefer the Beta Alpha version over the Alpha Beta version because collectors all agree that fewer Beta Alpha cards were released than Alpha Beta cards. You will also notice a lot of foreign cards are in this deck. The reason this must be is because foreign cards for some languages were printed in much fewer quantities than their other language counterparts. Specifically Korean, Russian, and Japanese are considered the most collectable sets especially in terms of foils. Note that Korean first appeared in M12 (with some also in Urza’s Saga, Visions, Tempest, and 4th Ed), Russian first appeared in 9th Edition, and Japanese first appeared in 4th Edition. I will try to stick with this pick order throughout the deck.

OK, now let’s go through the list and figure out how to make everything as expensive as possible.

LANDS:

– 4x Scalding Tarn FOIL Russian Zendikar – Estimated $3,600

I wasn’t able to find a single foil Russian Scalding Tarn for sale online on eBay or other websites that I looked through. I did find this completed listing on March 10th for a playset of non-foil Russian Scalding Tarns for $450 which is about $112.50 each. Based on the current ratio of foil price to non-foil price for Scalding Tarn in English ($106.40 non-foil, $247.60) I estimate that a foil Russian Scalding Tarn would sell for a minimum of $261.80 based on the 0.42 ratio (which I will refer to henceforth as the multiplier) for English prices.

But with collectible rare items like this, regular multipliers go out the window. Japanese foils are of comparable rarity to Russian, and a foil Japanese Scalding Tarns sells for roughly $600 on eBay. Non-foil Japanese Scalding Tarns sell for about $75 based on this completed playset listing. This makes the multiplier 0.125 rather than 0.42 for English foil and non-foil copies. Based on this multiplier, if I had a foil Russian Scalding Tarn and wanted to sell it I would be comfortable selling it for $900 ($112.50 for a non-foil divided by 0.125 multiplier). Since we are trying to make the most expensive deck, all four Scalding Tarns must be foil Russian so the final total comes to $3,600.

– 3x Underground Sea Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $24,000

Now I will tell the story of Summer Magic. According to MTGSalvation, “Summer Magic refers to a printing of Revised Edition that was to be destroyed because of numerous errors in the printing. Some of the cards survived and were released, and booster packs from this edition are extremely rare.”

To give you an idea of how rare, the snippet mentions that about only 40 boxes of the product were ever released to the public. In terms of packs, that means that only 1,440 packs of this product ever existed! Outside of test prints and other rare oddities that sometimes make their way out of Wizards of the Coast, these are some of the rarest cards you can acquire. I’m not even sure if three Underground Sea even exist from this product. However, based on the pack count I am fairly confident that they existed at some point. Assuming that they still exist and you can track them down, I based my price on this listing I found on ABUGames which prices one at $8,000. If you look at the picture, you can tell that it is different than a generic Revised Underground Sea because the art is much darker and there is a copyright date displayed.

Summer Magic Underground Seapng;base64153230a555c5fd5f

Generic Revised Underground Seapng;base6492d6889077b6ea71

Personally, I love the darker art because it gives the card a crisper appearance. Even though the card is white bordered (the usual mark of a high value deck is that all cards are black bordered) I think we can make an exception in this case. Funny, we’re already at $27,600 and we’ve only bought seven cards so far…

(Before I continue, it usually noted amongst collectors that the blue Hurricane from the Summer Magic set is regarded as the rarest misprint in existence. These currently go for about $16,000 on eBay. Even though Hurricane isn’t in the deck, it doesn’t mean that you can’t make a casual deck that is still crazy expensive!)

– 3x Polluted Delta FOIL Japanese Onslaught – Estimated $5,835

Since Russian cards did not exist until 9th Edition, we will defer to acquiring foil Japanese Polluted Deltas. Since I’m not sure what the best offer was from this sold foil Japanese Polluted Delta, I will have to base my calculations on the multiplier I discovered with Scalding Tarn Japanese foil prices. This playset of non-foils sold in Feb for $598 as a playset, so individually they are worth about $149.50. Using the multiplier 0.125, I would be comfortable selling a foil Japanese Polluted Delta for $1,196. For three of them, that comes to $3,588. a listing that I discovered on tokyomtg.com for a Japanese foil Polluted Delta. The Delta is listed for ¥199,000 which is about $1945 USD. For three of them, that comes to $5,835 total. My multiplier is inaccurate for Polluted Delta due to its age and the premium Vintage & Legacy players place upon it (based on Twitter feedback).

– 2x Volcanic Island Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $12,000

Like Underground Sea, of course we want our dual lands to be Summer Magic. According to ABUGames, a Summer Magic Volcanic Island will cost you $6,000. Two of them comes to $12,000.

– 1x Island Guru “Drowning Man” MISSING SYMBOL – Estimated $2,000 (discovered through Twitter comment and sourced through Magic Librarities)

– 1x Swamp Guru MISSING SYMBOL – $2,000

Wow, we can actually buy REALLY expensive basic lands for this deck! Be honest, how many of you thought I would put foil Unhinged Island and foil Unhinged Swamp in this deck? You would be wrong, there are basic lands rarer than that! This Starcity article covers the a lot about the different types of rarer basic lands in Magic and mentions that Guru Lands are the rarest of all. Even though Summer Magic exists, any Guru basic that is misprinted is going to worth more than a Summer Magic basic.

Based on eBay listings, foil Unhinged Islands sell for about $60 and foil Unhinged Swamps sell on average for $45. However, eBay listings for Guru Islands are around $220 and eBay listings for Guru Swamps around $112 (but “Drowning Man” Gurus, which have missing symbols, are extra rare). Collectors place a lot more value on these Guru Lands than foil Unhinged Lands. For the curious, Mountain Gurus sell for about $110, Plains sell for about $110, and Forests sell for about $115. As for the misprint, the seller tried to sell an Island for ~$2,100 so I will estimate that both the Swamp and Island are worth $2,000 each.

– 1x Tolarian Academy Urza’s Saga – $25.64

– 1x Tolarian Academy Korean Urza’s Saga – $152

Tolarian Academy foreign copies are worth the same as their English counterparts and there are no foil or other editions of this card. Outside of finding a crimped version or having the Tolarian Academy altered to be a full art card by the original artist, we need to go by the market value of an Urza’s Saga Tolarian Academy. A commenter below notified me that Urza’s Saga exists in Korean. A Korean Urza’s Saga Tolarian Academy sold in January for €110 or about $152 USD. We definitely need to have this over any English versions.

– 1x BGS-8.5 Library of Alexandria Arabian Nights – Estimated $227.50

No other editions of Library exist outside of Arabian Nights, so here we are looking for the highest graded copy we can find. This eBay listing sold for $227.50, which is the only graded Library where I could find a sold price.

Oh my, I’ve only purchased the land base at this point and we’re already up to $43,766.14. Let’s continue with the creatures.

Creatures

– 4x Dark Confidant FOIL Russian Ravnica: City of Guilds – Estimated $2,880

Similar to Scalding Tarn, I couldn’t easily find a foil Russian Confidant from Ravnica for sale on eBay or other websites. Therefore, I will have to use my 0.125 multiplier to estimate the price. Non-foil Russian Ravnica Dark Confidant sells for $90, so using the multiplier we can estimate that a foil Russian Ravnica Dark Confidant would sell for $720. Thus a playset would cost you $2,880.

– 2x Snapcaster Mage FOIL Korean Innistrad – Estimated $935

Innistrad was released shortly after M12, so we want foil Korean Snapcasters for this deck. Based on these sold listings, one sold for $425 and another for $510 so average would be $467.50. Two of them makes $935.

– 1x Myr Battlesphere FOIL Russian Scars of Mirrodin – Estimated $15

Again, even though these exist in Russian I cannot find a single website that offers them for sale. Basing it off Japanese prices, foil Japanese Battlespheres sold for $10 to $20 dollars. I value Russian the same so we’ll use $15 average in this case.

Instants and Sorcereies

– 4x Force of Will German Alliances – Estimated $412 (updated based on Twitter comment)

Force of Will only had one printing, so the only possibility would be foreign being worth more. Non-English copies sell for the same as English in German sell for slightly more than English. The usual market price is $95. On eBay, they average $103 for German so we’ll want to go with those for this deck. Barring having these German Forces 1) altered by Terese Nielsen or 2) finding any crimped copies or 3) finding miscut Forces that have a source indicating the price they were sold at, this is the price we’ll use for German NM copies.

– 3x Lightning Bolt Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $3,000

Lightning Bolt was in Revised and thus was printed in the Summer Magic set as well. Unlike Underground Sea and Volcanic Island, there is a good chance we can actually find three of these cards since they are only commons within the set. Still though, Lightning Bolt is a very popular card so the price won’t be that cheap. ABUGames (which seems to be the authority on Summer Magic prices) lists them at $999 each. Buying three adds up to $3,000. For those who doubt that Summer is the highest, even a graded Beta Bolts sells for only $70.

– 2x Spell Pierce FOIL Russian Zendikar – Estimated $120

I couldn’t find any listed or sold Russian foil Spell Pierce, so I will base the price from the non-foil counterpart with the multiplier. Non-foil Russian Spell Pierce sold for about $7.50 each on eBay, so using the multiplier I would value foil Russian Spell Pierce at $60 each. Two of them brings us to $120.

– 2x Mana Drain English Legends – $443.30

Even though Legends had one non-English version (Italian) collectors generally price English versions higher than non-English because Italian versions are more prevalent. We want our deck to contain English versions for the maximum Richie Rich effect. These are each $221.65, so two would be $443.30.

– 2x Mental Misstep FOIL Russian New Phyrexia – Estimated $80

Again, through all my web scouring I could not find a foil one of these for sale. (If anyone has a resource that they use to find foil Russian cards please let me know in the comments!) I did find this listing on eBay for a non-foil Russian playset for $20, so that is $5 per copy. Using the multiplier that comes to $40 per foil Russian copy so $80 for two.

– 1x Yawgmoth’s Will Judge Gift Program – $45

– 1x Yawgmoth’s Will Korean (Signed) Urza’s Saga – $205

Unlike Tolarian Academy, Yawgmoth’s Will did have another printing as Judge Foil which collectors regard as more valuable than both the English and non-English regular English Urza’s Saga versions. Judge foils are selling on average for $45 on eBay so that’s the price we’ll go by here. However, since Urza’s Saga does exist in Korean, a premium is placed on the foreign version. This website places that price at €149 or about $205. We definitely want that version over any English or foil copies.

– 1x Tinker FOIL Japanese Urza’s Legacy – Estimated $75

I’m basing this price off a listing on dacardworld since I couldn’t find any for sale on eBay or other sites.

– 1x Demonic Tutor Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $3,000

Even though there is a Judge Gift Program version of Demonic Tutor (which is the only foil version printed and goes for about $250) and a Beta graded version for $400, Demonic Tutor is also in Revised and therefore in Summer Magic. Summer Magic Demonic Tutor is priced at $3,000.

– 1x BGS-8.5 Time Walk Beta – Estimated $1,389
– 1x Time Walk Alpha – $2575

Time Walk is a classic P9 card, so we need to procure one that is in the most pristine condition that we can find. I found one on eBay which went for $1,389I found an Alpha on eBay for $2575 which fits our needs adequately. I did not find any sold graded ones so this will be the price.

– 1x Vampiric Tutor Judge Gift Program – Estimated $60

Vampiric Tutors in Korean go for about $47, so we’ll go with the Judge Gift Program version here. eBay sold listings average about $60 so that will be the price point.

– 1x PSA-10 Ancestral Recall Beta – Estimated $5,500

As with all P9 cards, we want to go with any graded versions we can find and then pick the highest grade among them. This PSA-10 Ancestral Recall (listing says case is signed thankfully) is listed for $5,500. No other comparable Alpha listings were available on eBay.

– 1x Brainstorm FOIL Japanese Mercadian Masques – Estimated $347

Wow, for a common Brainstorm is way more expensive than I thought as a foil even considering this is a Japanese foil we are looking at. Based on completed listings on eBay, one sold for $305 while others were listed at $389 but had best offers accepted. I will take the average of these two prices and estimate that $347 is the market price for a foil Japanese Brainstorm.

– 1x Mystical Tutor FOIL FTV: Exiled – $18.22

Since there were no foils in Mirage or Sixth Edition, we’ll have to go with the foil version that is in From the Vault: Exiled. This is the most expensive printing of Mystical Tutor on the market which goes for about four times the cost of a Mirage or Sixth Edition copy.

– 1x Merchant Scroll FOIL Japanese 8th Edition – Estimated $430

Interesting note about the Japanese 8th Ed Merchant Scroll is that all of them have misprinted the type line, which should be “Sorcery”, to the name of the card “Merchant Scroll” (even if you can’t read Japanese, you can still see the symbols are the same in the card name and type line boxes). Regardless, since all Japanese Merchant Scrolls have this misprint it doesn’t really add anything additional to the price other than its foily Japanese-ness. I couldn’t find any foil Japanese for sale or sold, so based on this current listing for a non-foil Japanese for $11 with the multiplier I would estimate that a foil Japanese Merchant Scroll would sell for $88. Based on Twitter feedback from @SonodaMTG  his store currently lists Japanese Merchant Scroll for ¥43,900 which converts to $430 USD. My normal multiplier will not work in this case, so I will defer to @SonodaMTG’s store for the pricing here.

– 1x Hurkyl’s Recall Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $2,000

Wow, I finally found a Russian foil listing!! If we wanted to outright buy one, this eBay listing can get it to us for $650. I personally like the art and black border of the Antiquities version, but clearly we need to buy the Summer Magic version for maximum affluence. These are priced at $2,000 per copy.

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– 1x Gifts Ungiven FOIL Japanese Champions of Kamigawa – Estimated $85

Based on current listings (none sold at the time of the article writing), I would estimate the cost of a foil Japanese Champions version is about $85. We want the original here, none of that FTV: Exiled nonsense.

13 Other Spells

– 3x Jace, the Mind Sculptor FOIL Russian Worldwake – Estimated $8,160

Jace is something special. He’s so special, in fact, that my normal multiplier will not work in this case. Non-foil Japanese Jace’s have sold for about $150 each but current listings (since I couldn’t find any prices for Russian foil or non-foil) for Japanese foil Jace’s are listed at about $2,400. That’s a multiplier of 0.0625! If we base our foil Russian price on this listing which sold for $150 as well (even though it is SP), that brings us to $2,400 for a foil Russian too. If we try to estimate NM, I would add $20 to the non-foil Russian listing. At $170 non-foil, I would estimate a NM foil Russian Jace from Worldwake to be $2,720 each. Three of them brings us to $8,160.

– 1x Beckett-9 Mox Emerald Beta – Estimated $1,500

– 1x PSA-10 Mox Emerald Alpha – $3,717

With P9, my philosophy is to go with graded when we can. This is the highest grade I could find that is within the Beta set. This is a PSA-10 graded one from Alpha. This is exactly what we are looking for, so into the deck it goes. Since it was listed at $1,700 and negotiated, and another similar graded mox sold for $1,200, I will price this Mox Emerald at $1,500.

– 1x BGS-9.5 Mox Sapphire Beta – $5,000

Same as above. This is the highest grade I could find that was printed in Beta. I could not find any comparable Alpha Mox Sapphire listings.

– 1x PSA-10 Time Vault Beta – Estimated $1,700

Based on this search for Beta Time Vaults, I only saw one PSA graded listing that sold but unfortunately the price was negotiated so we cannot see the actual price that was paid. Since other current listings are within the $1,400-$1500 range I will estimate that the PSA-10 one sold for about $1,700. There were no comparable Alpha Time Vault that were sold recently.

– 1x Sol Ring Revised SUMMER MAGIC – Estimated $3,000

I found this listing that sold for $225 for a graded Sol Ring and Judge Foils go for about $100 but since Sol Ring was in Revised we need the Summer Magic version since it is the rarest. These are priced by ABU Games at $3,000.

– 1x Mana Crypt Judge Gift Program – Estimated $180

I found this sold listing on eBay for a Judge Foil Mana Crypt that went for $180. Since the Judge Foils and book versions are about the same in rarity, and there are no differences in price between book promo languages, we’ll go with the Judge Foil version here.

– 1x Beckett-5 – Mox Pearl Beta CRIMPED – Estimated $1,900

Yeah, that’s right – since Mox Pearl is one of the “bad” moxes we can’t be satisfied just getting a normally graded Beta Mox Pearl. We must have the graded, crimped version and who knows how many of those exist. This could literally be the only one. I think that’s a steal at $1,900 compared to some of the other stuff on this list. I’m going to assume there isn’t an Alpha version of this.

– 1x PSA-6 – Mox Ruby Alpha – Estimated $1,045.95

In the same vein as our other P9, we want to have a graded one. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any graded Mox Ruby’s in Beta that were even close to NM. I found a few Beta “Altered” graded cards but these look horrible and I personally would never want to own one. Thus, we have to take a step back from Beta here and go with this Alpha one from dacardworld. I found this Alpha Mox Ruby at dacardworld. Without the discount the price is $1,045.95.

– 1x BGS-10 Black Lotus Beta – $100,000

Not only the jewel of our deck, but the crowning jewel of our collection and probably worthy of inclusion in a museum dedicated to Magic somewhere. Listed on eBay for anyone to buy, I’m not sure if it can be sold for $100,000 but since we’re building this deck we’re going for the gold here so to speak. Touted as the “only BGS-10 Beta Black Lotus in existence” I definitely want this Black Lotus for our deck. There were no other comparable Alpha listings on eBay.

Hands down this has to be the most expensive card in all of Magic. If anyone can find me a pricier card, please post it in the comments because I would be curious to see what it is.

– 1x Voltaic Key FOIL Russian M11 – Estimated $13

Russian copies of Voltaic Key are just as hard to find as all the others, so based off of Japanese non-foil Voltaic Key playset prices I would estimate that foil Russian Keys are about $13 with the multiplier of 0.125.

– 1x Beckett-8.5 Mox Jet Beta – Estimated $1,000

Based on the sold listings for Mox Jets on eBay, two graded ones were listed at $1,250 and $1,500 but were negotiated. After negotiations, I assume that they sold for close to $1,000 and $1,100 respectively. We’ll go with the cheaper option here because at this point our budget is starting to get stretched thin. I did not find any comparable Alpha Mox Jets.

******************************

The main deck brings us to $197,710.97 (mostly due to the Black Lotus which can arguably be negotiated in price a bit) but we also need to make sure we include the sideboard.

Sideboard

For the sake of wrapping up this article, I am going to save you all the links and research that I completed for calculations and instead post them at the end of the article in case you are curious about the price calculations. Suffice to say, Russian foils are hard to find. Maybe they are worth more than I giving them credit for…

My research yielded the following prices for the Sideboard cards:

– 3x Grafdigger’s Cage FOIL Korean Dark Ascension ~$135 total

– 1x Mountain Guru Land MISPRINT ~$2,000

– 4x Ingot Chewer FOIL Russian Lorwyn ~$96 total

– 3x Yixlid Jailer FOIL Russian Future Sight ~$60 total

– 2x Surgical Extraction FOIL Russian New Phyrexia ~$190 total

– 1x Strip Mine FOIL FTV: Exiled ~$22

– 1x Toxic Deluge Commander 2013 ~$12

The Final Price Count

Drum roll please! The total value of the deck, including Sideboard, comes to a grand total of $200,225.97. Ladies and gentleman, if you want to play the most expensive deck in Magic this is what it would cost you.

Of course, I realize that if you bust open the graded cards it will devalue them significantly. Taking this into account, my point in writing this article is to show you that you that Magic is a collectable and surprisingly valuable hobby. The cheapest card in the deck is Toxic Deluge at $12. And even if we didn’t play with graded cards the price of the deck would still be over $100,000 if we looked for NM copies of everything in the rarest edition that they exist.

I hope you all enjoyed this experiment! It was certainly the most fun I’ve had writing an article. If your friends ask you what the most expensive deck in Magic is you can now show them. Not only is the deck expensive but it can also do well at a Vintage tournament. Also, I’m finally on Twitter – follow me @gildedgoblin.

Last thing: I’ve included a handy table below as a quick reference in case you want to come back and quickly look up the price of various cards in the deck.

Deck List and Prices

Card

Estimated Cost

4x Scalding Tarn FOIL Russian Zendikar

$3,600

3x Underground Sea Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$24,000

3x Polluted Delta FOIL Japanese Onslaught

$5,835

2x Volcanic Island Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$12,000

1x Swamp Guru Land MISPRINT

$2,000

1x Island Guru Land MISPRINT

$2,000

1x Tolarian Academy Korean Urza’s Saga

$152

1x BGS-8.5 Library of Alexandria Arabian Nights

$227.50

4x Dark Confidant FOIL Russian Ravnica

$2,880

2x Snapcaster Mage FOIL Korean Innistrad

$935

1x Myr Battlesphere FOIL Russian Scars of Mirrodin

$15

4x Force of Will German Alliances

$412

3x Lightning Bolt Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$3,000

2x Spell Pierce FOIL Russian Zendikar

$120

2x Mana Drain English Legends

$443.30

2x Mental Misstep FOIL Russian New Phyrexia

$80

1x Yawgmoth’s Will Korean Urza’s Saga

$205

1x Tinker FOIL Japanese Urza’s Legacy

$75

1x Demonic Tutor Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$3,000

1x Time Walk Alpha

$2,575

1x Vampiric Tutor Judge Gift Program

$60

1x PSA-10 Ancestral Recall Beta

$5,500

1x Brainstorm FOIL Japanese Mercadian Masques

$347

1x Mystical Tutor FTV: Exiled

$18.22

1x Merchant Scroll FOIL Japanese 8th Edition

$430

1x Hurkyl’s Recall Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$2,000

1x Gifts Ungiven FOIL Japanese Champions of Kamigawa

$85

3x Jace, the Mind Sculptor FOIL Russian Worldwake

$8,160

1x PSA-10 Mox Emerald Alpha

$3,717

1x BGS-9.5 Mox Sapphire Beta

$5,000

1x PSA-10 Time Vault Beta

$1,700

1x Sol Ring Revised SUMMER MAGIC

$3,000

1x Mana Crypt Judge Gift Program

$180

1x Beckett-5 – Mox Pearl Beta CRIMPED

$1,900

1x PSA-6 – Mox Ruby Alpha

$1,045.95

1x BGS-10 Black Lotus Beta

$100,000

1x Voltaic Key FOIL Russian M11

$13

1x Beckett-8.5 Mox Jet Beta

$1,000

SIDEBOARD

******************

3x Grafdigger’s Cage FOIL Korean Dark Ascension

$135

1x Mountain Guru Land MISPRINT

$2,000

4x Ingot Chewer FOIL Russian Lorwyn

$96

3x Yixlid Jailer FOIL Russian Future Sight

$60

2x Surgical Extraction FOIL Russian New Phyrexia

$190

1x Strip Mine FOIL FTV: Exiled

$22

1x Toxic Deluge Commander 2013

$12

GRAND TOTAL

$200,225.97

Sideboard References:

3x Grafdigger’s Cage FOIL Korean Dark Ascension

This Korean foil sold for $44.95 so I’ll accept that as the price. For three, that comes to about $135.

1x Mountain Guru Land MISPRINT

Again, we can use the misprinted guru Mountain for inclusion in this sideboard. Like the others, based on the Island listing I would price each of them at ~$2,000. (Lucky for us, the misprints were in exactly the colors we needed them to be to make this deck extra pricey.)

Honorable mention to Arabian Nights Mountain, since Arabian Nights wasn’t supposed to have basic lands but Mountain was accidentally included as a rare. These are about $30-$40 if we want one.

4x Ingot Chewer FOIL Russian Lorwyn

A playset of non-foil was listed but unsold for $12. Using this as a guideline, with the multiplier foil Russian copies would be about $24 each. That comes to $96 total.

3x Yixlid Jailer FOIL Russian Future Sight

Non-foil Japanese Yixlid Jailers go for $10 per playset on eBay, so using the multiplier for foil and assuming Russian is priced like Japanese that comes to $20 per foil copy, which is $60 total for the deck.

Based on what you’ve seen so far, this might seem low. Keep in mind there are also English and Japanese DCI Promo Foil Yixlid Jailer to keep other foil prices down.

2x Surgical Extraction FOIL Russian New Phyrexia

Based on this ended auction I found for a playset of Russian Surgical Extraction, two of them would cost $190.

1x Strip Mine FOIL FTV: Exiled

Completed listings on eBay average about $22.

1x Toxic Deluge Commander 2013

No other versions, all languages priced the same. Market price is $12.

GP Richmond: A Tale of Two Tournaments

By: Jared Yost

Unless you were on site, you would not have known that Starcity had to split GP Richmond up into two areas of the Richmond Convention Center. One room was the Green and White flights, and another room was the Pink Flight. As you might guess this caused a lot of controversy amongst the tournament attendees. Based on when you signed up for the tournament you may not have gotten to play in the same hall as your friends were. I was assigned to Pink and none of my friends were. Thus I was separated from my group that I came down with for the tournament all day. Despite this I had a really great time and wanted to share my experience with all of you.

What I Played

I went 4-3 Day 1 with UWR Midrange and then dropped after Round 7. Technically my final game Round 7 was a tie however I decided to concede the game to my opponent because we were both X-2’s at that point and neither of us would have made Day 2 with a tie.

Here is my list:

25 LANDS
4 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Island
2 Mountain
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Eiganjo Castle
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Plains
1 Tectonic Edge

13 CREATURES
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Grim Lavamancer
3 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Vendilion Clique

19 INSTANTS and SORCERIES
4 Lightning Helix
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Path to Exile
2 Mana Tithe
2 Electrolyze
2 Remand
1 Izzet Charm
1 Boros Charm

3 OTHER SPELLS
2 Batterskull
1 Isochron Scepter

SIDEBOARD
2 Wrath of God
1 Wear / Tear
2 Runed Halo
1 Spellskite
1 Shadow of Doubt
2 Aven Mindcensor
1 Baneslayer Angel
2 Counterflux
1 Damping Matrix
2 Threads of Disloyalty


This list is a facsimile of the deck that made the Top 8 of GP Portland last year and I liked it because I was familiar playing the list and also thought it would be a good choice against the various Affinity and Zoo decks that I foresaw playing against.

Based on the Top 8 I bet most of you are wondering why I wanted to run Wrath of God over Anger of the Gods. I thought about this choice for a long while and still decided to run Wrath over Anger because of Tarmogoyf and the possibility of seeing Thrun throughout the day. Wrath still worked pretty well for me but I never played Pod to test out how good it would be against that archetype.

I don’t want to harp on about my playing too much (since I’m sure you all want to hear about financial analysis) so here is how I did:

Wins:
2x Affinity
1x Mirror (UWR Midrange)
1x Scapeshift (Generic List)
Losses:
1x RG Tron
1x Scapeshift (Primeval Titan version)
Tie (then conceding afterwards):
Faeries

I did not get matched up against Pod, Splinter Twin, or RUG Twin at all, which makes me slightly disappointed since I wanted to see if I could win against those match ups. Luckily I avoided B/W Tokens, Living End, and Bogles, which are my deck’s hardest matchups. I also didn’t play against any random brews so I feel like I was able to get a lot of good playtesting at GP Richmond.

In retrospect, combo was a great choice for the tournament (thus why Pod got five of the top eight slots). However, combo and Affinity weren’t the only takeaways from the weekend. Modern is a wide open format despite the Top 8 results. There are a ton of decks you can play, and similar to Legacy the format rewards people for knowing how to play their deck really well. I was able to win a lot of games by just auto-piloting my deck through the usual motions due to all the interactions I discovered playtesting with it. I would bet the same is true for everyone playing Pod, Affinity, and U/R Twin that made the Top 8. They are all tricky decks to play at the best of times, so knowing your deck really well definitely gives you an advantage over less experienced players.

Card Financial Analysis from the Tournament Floor

Ironic that my tie is to the deck that people were laughing at and calling tier 2. Well, let me inform you – the person that I conceded to did make Day 2. Faeries can still sling some cardboard pretty well and my deck just happened to have a bad matchup against them. Bitterblossom isn’t an $80 card but that doesn’t mean that it is complete garbage. I would still watch out for Faeries pieces to move in the future. Some cards that I saw in the person’s deck that interest me included:

Creeping Tar Pit
Tectonic Edge
Mutavault
Spellstutter Sprite
Cryptic Command
Vendilion Clique

I would bet that out of these Vendilion Clique and Tectonic Edge are the safest in terms of going up in price and then holding onto their price until a reprint.

Based on my own matchups, and in addition to what I was hearing from other players, I want to target the following cards for future growth:

Pod:
Spellskite
Birds of Paradise
Restoration Angel
Chord of Calling

Affinity:
Etched Champion
Glimmervoid
Inkmoth Nexus
Blinkmoth Nexus
Arcbound Ravager

Scapeshift:
Scapeshift
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
Primeval Titan

Merfolk (this deck went undefeated Day 1):
Aether Vial
Master of Waves
Master of the Pearl Trident
Lord of Atlantis
Phantasmal Image

On the trading floor, I was able to scrounge through $1 to up to $10 binders for deals. This was completely worth it. I was able to pick up Chain Lightnings for $6 HP, 4 out of the 5 Medallions (every color except for white) for $5 each, Chokes for $0.50, a playset of Scapeshifts for $36, and Japanese foil Myr Enforcer and Frogmite for $2 each. Unfortunately only one vendor had these types of binders but I was still able to get a lot for my money while on the tournament floor.

Everything else cardwise for Modern was totally over priced. One crazy card spike was Runed Halo, which went up to $15. Many dealers sold out of these during the tournament. I myself played two of them because they help my matchup against Bogles and Storm. I saw later that they also went up to $15 online yet I don’t think this price will be sustained. They are great sideboard tech at their best, so unless Torpor Orb is soon to become a $15 card I would not want to be picking up Runed Halos right now. Some of the cheapest deals were coming from Channel Fireball who were selling Celestial Colonnades for $17 each and offering great buylist prices for many Modern staples. I offloaded a bunch of Genesis Waves and Sigg, River Cutthroats to them for $3 each buylist which I thought was pretty good.

You could also find great deals on other products. Troll and Toad was selling Dragon Shield 100 count boxes for $8 each which is 20% off the usual going rate. I picked up a few boxes of these because you almost never see Dragon Shields that cheap.

Surprisingly, the Eternal Witness playmat that I received from GP Richmond is going anywhere from $55 to $80 based on complete eBay listings. If you didn’t do so well at the tournament, take solace in the fact that the playmat and GP Batterskull that you received (which is going for $30 at Starcity and anywhere from $35-$45 on other websites) more than paid for the basic tournament entry of $40.

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All in all, it was a great weekend to find deals and discover which Modern cards are currently trending. I will be looking towards picking up pieces of Modern decks I am working on building (like Pod and Affinity) in anticipation of the summer and more Modern tournaments. Modern is a wide open format, so the field could change significantly going into the summer, but I have a good feeling that I will still be playing UWR Midrange going forward. Even though a lot of my games went to time during the rounds of the tournament it is the deck I know best how to play and I believe that this will lead me to more Modern success.

Casual Demand and Why it’s Important

By: Jared Yost

This one goes out to you casual players. You’re the heart of the game and the reason why Wizards has continued to become more and more successful as the years go on.

Let’s face it, without casual demand like players buying individual booster packs Wizards would close their doors sooner rather than later. The demand for the game and its cards cannot be sustained by the singles market alone. Sure, more financially minded players realize that it is a losing game to keep cracking packs in the hope that you’ll score at least three Brimaz, but for many players the act of opening a pack, smelling the cards, and going through each one and even sometimes being surprised by a valuable card in the pack can’t be understated. There is a reason that Magic’s de facto comic strip is called Cardboard Crack. We can all be severely addicted to our hobbies and Magic doesn’t escape this phenomenon.

One of the ways I learned to save money playing Magic was to stop cracking packs since it is one of the most inefficient ways to acquire valuable cards for your collection. As a casual player though, finance is the last thing on your mind. One of the main reasons that you play the game is to crack packs. Cracking packs is so awesome that they created the Limited format based on around it, because even binder grinders and highly competitive players need a way to crack packs other than to just open them. Not you. You’re just fine with crackin‘ ‘em open, and the more the better. What I’m now going to tell you is that there is a way for you to still satiate your addiction while not throwing value out the window, but it isn’t for the faint of heart.

As players, we can capitalize on our own addiction by setting aside a booster box from each set we want to purchase and then later sell them down the road at a profit as sealed product. Now, I realize that the temptation of opening that booster box may be too much for some of you, yet a very clear pattern that has emerged from sealed product is that it is bound to go up in value over the years.

Getting Value from Booster Boxes

Sealed product has a proven history of going up in value and booster boxes are the prime example of this. Setting aside a booster box from each set you want to buy is a great way to pay your way forward in Magic. If you’re going to buy two booster boxes when a set comes out and maybe even get a deal then, why not set one aside in your closet and sell it a few years later when it has doubled or more in value? A lot of people even purchase cases though this is too rich for my blood. Why not set aside two booster boxes, even three booster boxes from a case?

Let’s do the math for Innistrad, which is a fairly recent set and follows this trend. These were the preorder prices for Innistrad before it came out September 30th, 2011:

1

If we bought a case:

$519.95 + ~$20 shipping = $539.95 total

$539.95 / 6 boxes = $89.99 per box

If we bought two boxes (closer to an actual causal purchase):

($89.75 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.5

  • This purchase is more expensive per box (~$93.75 per box) but cheaper overall.

It’s now the current day and we loved drafting Innistrad. We want to do a few triple Innistrad flashback drafts of the set. (None of that Dark Ascension nonsense, we’re pure Innistrad only!)

Now that we know how much this would have cost us when preordering, let’s find out how much it would cost us now:

2

Holy moly what a difference!

Case:

$1067 per case (which is the only seller, it could easily jump up in price again.)

+ ~$20 shipping = $1,087 total

$1,087 / 6 boxes = $181.17 per box

Two Boxes:

($169.99 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $347.98

If you could afford the initial purchase up front back in 2011 two booster boxes of Innistrad today was worth 64% of a case if preordered when the set came out! If you could restrain yourself and set aside three booster boxes, you would have recouped 94% of what you originally spent. Not too shabby for basically doing nothing and still cracking three or four booster boxes.

If you bought two booster boxes of Innistrad back in 2011 and then set one aside in a closet until now you could sell it and reclaim 91% of your initial purchase in 2011. The second booster box has practically paid for the first one.

For the more financially minded, this probably seems pretty obvious. “Duh, the set is out of print, of course I can sell boxes at a premium.” What most people don’t realize however is that this is one of the safest ways to make money from Magic. That’s right, even sealed product like booster boxes isn’t off the table when it comes to picking things that gain value. It might take you a while to find a buyer but this is probably the lowest risk call you can make as a speculator that will guarantee you a return. It’s basically the index fund of the Magic world.

Let’s look at Return to Ravnica, which I’m sure most of you are definitely familiar with and see if the trend holds for more recent sets. Here are prices from September 2012:

3

Back in September 2012, you could preorder Return to Ravnica for basically the same cost as Innistrad (though cases seem to be pricier). I note this because sometimes Wizards will increase their pack price MSRP. The last increase was when packs went from $3.25 to $3.99 MSRP when Time Spiral was released in 2006. Thankfully this has not happened in quite a while, though it makes me feel like they may increase their pack price soon.

Anyways back to the math:

Case:

$535.99 per case + ~$20 shipping = $555.99 total

$555.99 / 6 boxes = $92.67 per box

Two Boxes:

($89.94 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.88 ($93.94 per box)

Again, boxes are slightly more expensive when bought individually because sellers will charge more for shipping individual boxes.

These are the current prices today:

4

Hmm, they haven’t gone up in value too much. If we go by the lows:

Case:

$565.00 per case + ~$20 shipping = $585.00 total

$585.00 / 6 boxes = $97.50 per box

Two Boxes:

($92.49 * 2)  + ~$8 shipping = $192.98 ($96.49 per box)

From these calculations for Return to Ravnica then and now we can see:

1. It seems like the price has remained stagnant for Return to Ravnica boxes so far since it only went up $3, unlike Innistrad which doubled.

2. Buying Return to Ravnica in case form today is noticeably more expensive than buying it per box if you were to just buy six boxes. Usually individual boxes are more expensive compared to box price per case. I’m predicting this is because the set is currently in a state of flux, where vendors may have lowered their box prices to get them out the door to make room for future product. We can see this with Cataclysm Games, where if you buy six boxes (($92.95 * 6) + ~$10 shipping = $567.7) versus a case ($569.95 + $10 shipping = $579.95) you’re actually saving $12.25.

3. If we preordered a case and saved three boxes, or preordered two boxes and saved one, we have yet to see a significant return on that investment 1 year, 5 months later. We only gained ~$5 per box if we ordered by the caseload and only ~$2.50 per box if we bought individual boxes. This leads me to believe that there is a lot of Return to Ravnica product out there.

We seem to have conflicting evidence. On the one hand Innistrad has gained significant value but on the other hand Return to Ravnica has not. Am I missing something here? Was Innistrad that much more popular than Return to Ravnica? (Well, I do think that triple Innistrad draft is still a popular format at this point and is more popular than triple Return to Ravnica draft (Pack Rat!)). Was Innistrad printed significantly less than Return to Ravnica? Is that two year birthday for a set that important? Maybe a little of all these reasons is why Return to Ravnica sealed product has stagnated.

One reason I’d venture to guess that Innistrad has climbed up in price so quickly is that it has valuable eternal staples like Liliana, Geist, and Snapcaster. Return to Ravnica currently does not contain as many valuable eternal staples.

My best guess though? Not enough time has passed. Given enough time Return to Ravnica will go up in value. If we use the index funds example, you’re looking just to outperform the market, not become the next penny stock mega winner. (That is, pick up a random $0.20 rare and hope that it spikes to $10+.) There is no doubt in my mind that Return to Ravnica is a very popular set and I am sure in time this will become evident as the price of RtR sealed product goes up. It just looks like hitting that 2nd birthday is the important defining characteristic of the price bump for booster boxes.

Getting Value from Other Casual Products

Another way you can tell that casual players are so important is because Wizards has been releasing new products on a more consistent schedule than ever before in their history. Back in the day, we were lucky to get a core set once every two years (which everyone hated because it only consisted of reprints) and the three block sets of the year (one big set in the fall, and two smaller sets spaced out through winter). This lead to a lot of stagnant Magic. It was easy to get bored. This created cycles of people leaving the game then coming back later once more unpopular sets rotated from Standard.

These days more people are coming back to the game than ever and they’re staying. Combine this with the addition of all the brand new players per year and you have a recipe for success. Let’s go over some of the ways that Wizards has catered to the casual crowd:

Commander Decks (Commander 2011, Commander 2013)

Here were the price of Commander Decks in 2011 about six months after they came out:

5

6

7

Here are what they are today:

8

9

10

(Heavenly Inferno is currently ending on auctions at anywhere from $90 for non-English versions to up to $200 for English versions)

Very obvious upward trend in prices. Even if you bought the unpopular commander decks at the time (that is, the decks without Legacy staples in them) you still made out like a bandit if you waited to sell. They were all selling for about MSRP even six months after their release.

This is why a lot of Magic financiers recommended for Commander 2013 to even buy the non-Mind Seize decks. Even though the rest of the decks didn’t seem to have much to offer Constructed formats, casuals don’t give two craps about constructed potential. They just want to attack you with their angels, demons, and dragons as fast as possible. I see no reason why the current batch of commander decks won’t also follow this pattern as they age.

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks (essentially, all the products that MSRP’ed for $19.99)

Archenemy – June 2010 MSRP $19.99

Today’s prices:

11

Planechase 2009 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

12

Planechase 2012 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

13

14

 

Duel Decks

Duel Deck

Current Price

Elves vs. Goblins

$200.00

Jace vs. Chandra

$130.00

Divine vs. Demonic

$170.00

Garruk vs. Liliana

$65.00

Phyrexia vs. The Coalition

$32.00

Elspeth vs. Tezzeret

$40.00

Knights vs. Dragons

$50.00

Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas

$43.00

Venser vs. Koth

$25.00

Izzet vs. Golgari

$25.00

Sorin vs. Tibalt

$19.00

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks Price Analysis

Popular casual products are the single-deck sealed products which are Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy. These products offered more than just decks because Planechase and Archenemy have oversized cards (which also have value if you try to sell them individually) and Commander added brand new cards to the existing card pool. On the other hand, Duel Decks seem to be hit or miss. I think this is because they only consist of reprints and that Wizards seems to have been watering down the most recent ones by not including more powerful spells like the ones found in Divine vs. Demonic or Jace vs. Chandra.

In other words, you shouldn’t pick up extra Duel Decks unless there is something special in them (Demonic Tutor and Counterspell with Jace art are good examples). They take the longest to go up in value and the gains factored in with the time it takes are too long for the profits to matter.

If you’re interested in holding on to extra sealed product for value you want to be looking at picking up Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy (if they do Archenemy again) products. All of these products have evidence showing they go up in value over time.

Casual Players Are Important

Without casual players we would have no one to crack individual packs. Without cracking packs booster boxes would never become valuable. We would also have no one to buy other sealed products that Wizards releases because they look cool or add new aspects to the game in a non-competitive fashion. This would make buying the sealed products Wizards releases a complete waste of money if you’re trying to hold them for value. This clearly isn’t the case. We’re lucky to have such an amazing fanbase behind Magic because without them the game would surely go away. From a numbers perspective, we can see that all it takes to capitalize on Magic’s fanbase is to hold onto a few extra sealed products here or there.

Casual players, you may not realize it but buying these products is itself an investment in the game. Even if you are just buying the products to play with, with no intention of wanting to buy extra to sit on them or make money, my advice to you is to buy what you want as soon as you can afford it. Sealed products are never going to be cheaper than when they first come out, no matter if you’re eyeing something like a booster case or even just considering picking up a duel deck. If you ever have the inclination to help your hobby pay for itself, pick up a few extra sealed products and sit on them. Eventually you can cash them out to cover the costs of buying in even if that is a few years down the road. I believe the evidence that I’ve presented in this article has more than proved that in all cases.

The upcoming Conspiracy set is one of the reasons I’m writing this article. I would definitely be looking to pick up as much Conspiracy as I can and holding whatever I choose not to open. It looks like it is going to be another huge casual hit that will certainly go up in value over time.