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Jared is on vacation this week, so in the meantime enjoy this piece he originally wrote on March 3rd, 2014.

By: Jared Yost

This one goes out to you casual players. You’re the heart of the game and the reason why Wizards has continued to become more and more successful as the years go on.

Let’s face it, without casual demand like players buying individual booster packs Wizards would close their doors sooner rather than later. The demand for the game and its cards cannot be sustained by the singles market alone. Sure, more financially minded players realize that it is a losing game to keep cracking packs in the hope that you’ll score at least three Brimaz, but for many players the act of opening a pack, smelling the cards, and going through each one and even sometimes being surprised by a valuable card in the pack can’t be understated. There is a reason that Magic’s de facto comic strip is called Cardboard Crack. We can all be severely addicted to our hobbies and Magic doesn’t escape this phenomenon.

One of the ways I learned to save money playing Magic was to stop cracking packs since it is one of the most inefficient ways to acquire valuable cards for your collection. As a casual player though, finance is the last thing on your mind. One of the main reasons that you play the game is to crack packs. Cracking packs is so awesome that they created the Limited format based on around it, because even binder grinders and highly competitive players need a way to crack packs other than to just open them. Not you. You’re just fine with crackin‘ ‘em open, and the more the better. What I’m now going to tell you is that there is a way for you to still satiate your addiction while not throwing value out the window, but it isn’t for the faint of heart.

As players, we can capitalize on our own addiction by setting aside a booster box from each set we want to purchase and then later sell them down the road at a profit as sealed product. Now, I realize that the temptation of opening that booster box may be too much for some of you, yet a very clear pattern that has emerged from sealed product is that it is bound to go up in value over the years.

Getting Value from Booster Boxes

Sealed product has a proven history of going up in value and booster boxes are the prime example of this. Setting aside a booster box from each set you want to buy is a great way to pay your way forward in Magic. If you’re going to buy two booster boxes when a set comes out and maybe even get a deal then, why not set one aside in your closet and sell it a few years later when it has doubled or more in value? A lot of people even purchase cases though this is too rich for my blood. Why not set aside two booster boxes, even three booster boxes from a case?

Let’s do the math for Innistrad, which is a fairly recent set and follows this trend. These were the preorder prices for Innistrad before it came out September 30th, 2011:

If we bought a case:

$519.95 + ~$20 shipping = $539.95 total

$539.95 / 6 boxes = $89.99 per box

If we bought two boxes (closer to an actual causal purchase):

($89.75 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.5

• This purchase is more expensive per box (~$93.75 per box) but cheaper overall.

It’s now the current day and we loved drafting Innistrad. We want to do a few triple Innistrad flashback drafts of the set. (None of that Dark Ascension nonsense, we’re pure Innistrad only!)

Now that we know how much this would have cost us when preordering, let’s find out how much it would cost us now:

Holy moly what a difference!

Case:

$1067 per case (which is the only seller, it could easily jump up in price again.)

+ ~$20 shipping = $1,087 total

$1,087 / 6 boxes = $181.17 per box

Two Boxes:

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($169.99 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $347.98

If you could afford the initial purchase up front back in 2011 two booster boxes of Innistrad today was worth 64% of a case if preordered when the set came out! If you could restrain yourself and set aside three booster boxes, you would have recouped 94% of what you originally spent. Not too shabby for basically doing nothing and still cracking three or four booster boxes.

If you bought two booster boxes of Innistrad back in 2011 and then set one aside in a closet until now you could sell it and reclaim 91% of your initial purchase in 2011. The second booster box has practically paid for the first one.

For the more financially minded, this probably seems pretty obvious. “Duh, the set is out of print, of course I can sell boxes at a premium.” What most people don’t realize however is that this is one of the safest ways to make money from Magic. That’s right, even sealed product like booster boxes isn’t off the table when it comes to picking things that gain value. It might take you a while to find a buyer but this is probably the lowest risk call you can make as a speculator that will guarantee you a return. It’s basically the index fund of the Magic world.

Let’s look at Return to Ravnica, which I’m sure most of you are definitely familiar with and see if the trend holds for more recent sets. Here are prices from September 2012:

Back in September 2012, you could preorder Return to Ravnica for basically the same cost as Innistrad (though cases seem to be pricier). I note this because sometimes Wizards will increase their pack price MSRP. The last increase was when packs went from $3.25 to $3.99 MSRP when Time Spiral was released in 2006. Thankfully this has not happened in quite a while, though it makes me feel like they may increase their pack price soon.

Anyways back to the math:

Case:

$535.99 per case + ~$20 shipping = $555.99 total

$555.99 / 6 boxes = $92.67 per box

Two Boxes:

($89.94 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.88 ($93.94 per box)

Again, boxes are slightly more expensive when bought individually because sellers will charge more for shipping individual boxes.

These are the current prices today:

Hmm, they haven’t gone up in value too much. If we go by the lows:

Case:

$565.00 per case + ~$20 shipping = $585.00 total

$585.00 / 6 boxes = $97.50 per box

Two Boxes:

($92.49 * 2)  + ~$8 shipping = $192.98 ($96.49 per box)

From these calculations for Return to Ravnica then and now we can see:

1. It seems like the price has remained stagnant for Return to Ravnica boxes so far since it only went up $3, unlike Innistrad which doubled.

2. Buying Return to Ravnica in case form today is noticeably more expensive than buying it per box if you were to just buy six boxes. Usually individual boxes are more expensive compared to box price per case. I’m predicting this is because the set is currently in a state of flux, where vendors may have lowered their box prices to get them out the door to make room for future product. We can see this with Cataclysm Games, where if you buy six boxes (($92.95 * 6) + ~$10 shipping = $567.7) versus a case ($569.95 + $10 shipping = $579.95) you’re actually saving $12.25.

3. If we preordered a case and saved three boxes, or preordered two boxes and saved one, we have yet to see a significant return on that investment 1 year, 5 months later. We only gained ~$5 per box if we ordered by the caseload and only ~$2.50 per box if we bought individual boxes. This leads me to believe that there is a lot of Return to Ravnica product out there.

We seem to have conflicting evidence. On the one hand Innistrad has gained significant value but on the other hand Return to Ravnica has not. Am I missing something here? Was Innistrad that much more popular than Return to Ravnica? (Well, I do think that triple Innistrad draft is still a popular format at this point and is more popular than triple Return to Ravnica draft (Pack Rat!)). Was Innistrad printed significantly less than Return to Ravnica? Is that two year birthday for a set that important? Maybe a little of all these reasons is why Return to Ravnica sealed product has stagnated.

One reason I’d venture to guess that Innistrad has climbed up in price so quickly is that it has valuable eternal staples like Liliana, Geist, and Snapcaster. Return to Ravnica currently does not contain as many valuable eternal staples.

My best guess though? Not enough time has passed. Given enough time Return to Ravnica will go up in value. If we use the index funds example, you’re looking just to outperform the market, not become the next penny stock mega winner. (That is, pick up a random $0.20 rare and hope that it spikes to $10+.) There is no doubt in my mind that Return to Ravnica is a very popular set and I am sure in time this will become evident as the price of RtR sealed product goes up. It just looks like hitting that 2nd birthday is the important defining characteristic of the price bump for booster boxes.

Getting Value from Other Casual Products

Another way you can tell that casual players are so important is because Wizards has been releasing new products on a more consistent schedule than ever before in their history. Back in the day, we were lucky to get a core set once every two years (which everyone hated because it only consisted of reprints) and the three block sets of the year (one big set in the fall, and two smaller sets spaced out through winter). This lead to a lot of stagnant Magic. It was easy to get bored. This created cycles of people leaving the game then coming back later once more unpopular sets rotated from Standard.

These days more people are coming back to the game than ever and they’re staying. Combine this with the addition of all the brand new players per year and you have a recipe for success. Let’s go over some of the ways that Wizards has catered to the casual crowd:

Commander Decks (Commander 2011, Commander 2013)

Here were the price of Commander Decks in 2011 about six months after they came out:

Here are what they are today:

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(Heavenly Inferno is currently ending on auctions at anywhere from $90 for non-English versions to up to $200 for English versions)

Very obvious upward trend in prices. Even if you bought the unpopular commander decks at the time (that is, the decks without Legacy staples in them) you still made out like a bandit if you waited to sell. They were all selling for about MSRP even six months after their release.

This is why a lot of Magic financiers recommended for Commander 2013 to even buy the non-Mind Seize decks. Even though the rest of the decks didn’t seem to have much to offer Constructed formats, casuals don’t give two craps about constructed potential. They just want to attack you with their angels, demons, and dragons as fast as possible. I see no reason why the current batch of commander decks won’t also follow this pattern as they age.

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks (essentially, all the products that MSRP’ed for $19.99)

Archenemy – June 2010 MSRP $19.99

Today’s prices:

Planechase 2009 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

Planechase 2012 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

 

Duel Decks

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks Price Analysis

Popular casual products are the single-deck sealed products which are Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy. These products offered more than just decks because Planechase and Archenemy have oversized cards (which also have value if you try to sell them individually) and Commander added brand new cards to the existing card pool. On the other hand, Duel Decks seem to be hit or miss. I think this is because they only consist of reprints and that Wizards seems to have been watering down the most recent ones by not including more powerful spells like the ones found in Divine vs. Demonic or Jace vs. Chandra.

In other words, you shouldn’t pick up extra Duel Decks unless there is something special in them (Demonic Tutor and Counterspell with Jace art are good examples). They take the longest to go up in value and the gains factored in with the time it takes are too long for the profits to matter.

If you’re interested in holding on to extra sealed product for value you want to be looking at picking up Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy (if they do Archenemy again) products. All of these products have evidence showing they go up in value over time.

Casual Players Are Important

Without casual players we would have no one to crack individual packs. Without cracking packs booster boxes would never become valuable. We would also have no one to buy other sealed products that Wizards releases because they look cool or add new aspects to the game in a non-competitive fashion. This would make buying the sealed products Wizards releases a complete waste of money if you’re trying to hold them for value. This clearly isn’t the case. We’re lucky to have such an amazing fanbase behind Magic because without them the game would surely go away. From a numbers perspective, we can see that all it takes to capitalize on Magic’s fanbase is to hold onto a few extra sealed products here or there.

Casual players, you may not realize it but buying these products is itself an investment in the game. Even if you are just buying the products to play with, with no intention of wanting to buy extra to sit on them or make money, my advice to you is to buy what you want as soon as you can afford it. Sealed products are never going to be cheaper than when they first come out, no matter if you’re eyeing something like a booster case or even just considering picking up a duel deck. If you ever have the inclination to help your hobby pay for itself, pick up a few extra sealed products and sit on them. Eventually you can cash them out to cover the costs of buying in even if that is a few years down the road. I believe the evidence that I’ve presented in this article has more than proved that in all cases.

The upcoming Conspiracy set is one of the reasons I’m writing this article. I would definitely be looking to pick up as much Conspiracy as I can and holding whatever I choose not to open. It looks like it is going to be another huge casual hit that will certainly go up in value over time.

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By: Jared Yost

Research is Important

From the Vault: Annihilation has been released to the MTG masses at large and it certainly has moved the market in one way or another. Even in ways that defy common sense.

 

I crossed off the name of the vendors here so that they don’t get a lot of flack for posting Ravages of War at absurdly high prices because I believe they have a right to post the card at whatever price they feel the market will pay. We, however, do not have be idiots and actually pay this price for a card that still has a very high chance of being reprinted. Wizards has been all about the Portal Three Kingdoms (P3K) reprints ever since including some of the legendary creatures from the set in FTV: Legends. They proved that they were willing to go all out and not just include them in a FTV product when they reprinted several of them in the Commander 2013 decks. I would avoid this card entirely for the time being until the hype for not being included dies down.

Obviously Ravages of War was due for a spike because it was not included in the FTV: Annihilation. We can all agree on this point. Yet what is the true cost? Being able to have another Armageddon in all but name is great for both a player’s cubes and their Commander deck. Stores and players noticed that many copies had already been grabbed off the market and decided to make a last run to collect the remaining few and then try to sell them at a premium. Due to the low print run they could accomplish this if we are not careful. Since so few are for sale only seeing one or two prices could be very deceiving as to the true worth of the card. Cliff just wrote an article on Friday that touches on this very point and the current Ravages of War spike highlights his point perfectly. Just head over to eBay and the real story starts to reveal itself.

 

Just last Thursday two non-English versions sold for less than $200. In the previous months, English versions had trouble breaking $350 per copy. Listing an English version at a price higher than $3000 is highway robbery. Do not fall into this trap, please do your research before picking up a card for your cube or Commander deck if the price seems absurd to you.

Missed Opportunities

From my perspective, not including Ravages of War in this recent FTV was a huge oversight from Wizards. Not only did they miss Ravages of War, which would have been my number two guess at the most likely to be reprinted in the set, but they also failed to reprint Damnation (my number one guess before release for inclusion) and All is Dust (my number three guess). These three cards in my opinion best represent a theme of annihilation, destruction, and devastation.

In retrospect though, I can respect Wizards’ decision. Armageddon is an iconic card that carries with it unmeasurable quantities of Magic nostalgia. Not including it would probably have been weirder than having Ravages of War (which is frankly a card that not many players have ever seen). Not every decision Wizards makes can be financially focused. This sometimes gets sacrificed for flavor and historical relevance.

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Also consider that Damnation is probably going to be reprinted soon as well. With Commander 2014 on the way and the new Standard rotation coming in the future it is only a matter of time for this card as well. In addition, All is Dust already had a reprint through being a GP Promo so I think it was fair to skip out on it for the FTV.

Even though I was disappointed that not even one of my top three choices made it into the product I can’t fault Wizards too much for excluding them. This was an ambitious set to put together, and no matter what choices were made a ton of players were going to be unhappy.

Current Status

The past is the past and we can’t change that since the set is out in the world. We need to work with what we have to see if there is any opportunity. Here is what we are looking at for FTV vs non-FTV prices for the cards so far:

Card	FTV Price	Non-FTV Price
Rolling Earthquake	$13.97	$182.49
Burning of Xinye	$7.74	$149.98
Cataclysm	$6.45	$10.62
Armageddon	$5.90	$3.88
Smokestack	$5.47	$7.99
Wrath of God	$6.95	$7.44
Living Death	$4.95	$2.71
Terminus	$3.85	$3.40
Child of Alara	$3.45	$5.34
Martial Coup	$3.10	$4.39
Fracturing Gust	$3.35	$5.85
Upheaval	$2.35	$2.48
Virtue’s Ruin	$1.85	$6.26
Firespout	$1.85	$1.19
Decree of Annihilation	$1.35	$1.23

 

No surprise here that the P3K reprints are the most valuable. The most surprising part of this FTV is the lack of value compared to past FTV releases.

$14 is not much value if you’re talking about the headlining card of the release. Nicol Bolas, Berserk / Sensei’s Divining Top, Ulamog, Grove of the Burnwillows, Mox Diamond / Aether Vial, Jace – see a pattern here? All these cards are worth at least $25 retail now which means they were probably worth substantially more upon their respective FTV release. Rolling Earthquake is barely even half the value of the lowest priced of these cards.

Don’t get me wrong, giving the Magic community a version of the card that isn’t $180 is great for the game. It will get more people interested in picking up copies and could spur further interest in P3K along with any reprints they want to include in the next Commander decks. The only issue is that you are stuck with buying the FTV copies because the P3K versions haven’t moved much yet and it does not look like they’ll budge due to sheer rarity.

It is funny to see here that the FTV: Annihilation reprints hardly even brought down the price of the original P3K Rolling Earthquake and Burning of Xinye. Their original English printings barely even dropped 10% upon the reprint. This could be attributed to the market catching up with the increase in supply. If not, then it would surprise me greatly to realize that just the rarity of the set alone could be the factor here. I could be severely underestimating just how rare the original print run is to find since I was expecting a much higher drop in value of the original printing. Clearly the FTV price reflects accurate market demand, since the new version of Rolling Earthquake is only $14 which is about average for cube / Commander viable cards.

A $14 headliner doesn’t bode well for the future of the FTV: Annihilation product. Especially since many vendors are only selling the set as a whole for $45-$50 total. Many of the cards weren’t even on people’s radars. Upheaval, Firespout, Virtue’s Ruin? Did anyone even think to want these in here? They could have at least given Child of Alara art that doesn’t make it seem like a giant crying baby. The only cards that I would watch out for are Smokestack and Cataclysm in addition to the P3K red spells due to new art and first time foiling. These definitely have the potential to go up in the future from eternal demand. Other than these cards I’m not really expecting the rest of the set to do too much for a while.

Based on the prices I’m seeing this looks to be the most unpopular FTV release yet, which is unfortunate since there was so much potential that could have been here. I touched upon this a little bit in the previous section so I’m not going to continue to harp on about the point. Yet based on the current prices the demand isn’t there like for other FTV’s. At least not yet. Maybe this will be a good buy for $40 looking back a few years down the road. Only time will tell. At this point, I would suggest staying away from the box set as a whole and instead pick up any singles you want. The singles are all very cheap in the set compared to past FTV releases and they have a good chance of going down even further once more of these sets are cracked.

All in all, buying a FTV: Annihilation box set is risky because it will be hard to get much value out of it in the near future. However if you want everything in here, buying the box set is great because there has never been a cheaper FTV this close to MSRP.

By: Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! It seems we are finally moving away from the summer lulls. Speculators, vendors, and all those in between are starting to notice cards that they believe are undervalued. The evidence as usual is the upward trend in price and downward trend in inventory on TCGPlayer and other large vendor websites for certain cards. The question is though – is it hype or is it a spike?

I’ll identify some cards I have noticed so far and give my justification one way or another. We’ve seen this song and dance in the past so hopefully some cards will be much more clear cut than others.

I’ll also mention some other cards in the latter half of this article that people seem to be talking about online. These aren’t cards that are going to move significantly in price one way or another overnight but I thought I would address them since various sources have been discussing them.

Biggest Movers

 

Maralen of the Mornsong

On Friday of last week a buy out was executed on Maralen. Why, you ask? I’m asking myself the same question. I’m guessing this acquisition was based on the fact that she is a legendary creature from a small opened set, without a reprint in a supplementary product, and is the general of a pretty infamous Commander deck based on around Tendrils of Agony. That’s right folks, if you ever wanted to play ANT in Commander and be “that guy” then this general is perfect for you.

The problem is, I don’t think Commander players are very thrilled with losing on potentially turn two or three on a regular basis. Of course, if you have a very cutthroat Commander group then I can see this being the case – your metagame will just pack a bunch of targeted discard or other outlets. Yet to bring this kind of a deck to a Commander group that doesn’t play single person targeted discard or a ton of cheap counterspells? That’s just plain rude.

Another issue is that this card sees no competitive play. At all. Letting your opponent Grim Tutor during their upkeep seems bad. I know the argument “dies to removal” is a pretty bland argument against using a card but in this case it makes sense especially since you can tutor up any removal spell you want to get rid of it.

All in all, stay far away from non-foil versions of this card until the hype dies down. This isn’t going to be doing anything in Modern, at least not yet. They would have to print something similar to Mindlock Orb that is easy to synergize with Maralen.

Foils on the other hand could be profitable if you can get them for the right price. Being a cutthroat general is actually a bonus for competitive Commander staples since these players are the types of folks that like to foil out their decks. As of Friday, there were only two foils listed at $40 and $50 on TCGPlayer. I don’t think this is too far off from the real foil value and it can only gain over time. If you can find foils close to $30 I think that could be a pretty good deal.

 

Goblin Guide (and the GP Promo too!)

So much for Burn being a cheap option for Modern, eh? Guess it was good while it lasted. He has been slowly trending upwards over the past few months and as of last week is now hovering around $24.

 

One major factor for this increase is the Modern viability of the card. Burn is a deck many players favor for getting introduced to the Modern format. This way you can play Modern but also use the prize winnings to slowly work your way up to decks like Pod, Jund, and UWR control that have lots of shocklands and fetchlands and are decks that have better matchups against a wider range of the field.

However, I also think that the SCG Legacy Invitational in Somerset that is coming up at the end of August has something to do with the recent increase. I think that vendors are predicting that more players are going to want to start getting into Legacy especially with the Legacy GP coming up in November. Burn and and UR delver currently make up about 6% of the Legacy metagame. This is significant for a format like Legacy which tends to have 15+ solid Tier 1 decks that have a decent shot of taking down a tournament or making Top 8. Vendors noticed this and acted accordingly, buying up any copies of Goblin Guide they could since June and and reselling them at higher prices until now.

There were good reasons for this spike and in a way it could be predicted based on the trend from the previous few months if you happened to notice it. I’m not sure if it was on player’s radars though because there is also a GP promo (which also spiked) and Goblin Guide was reprinted in a Mirrodin Besieged event deck with two copies per deck! There are plenty of copies out there but demand has now come to outpace supply. This card has corrected in price and will not be moving without another reprint for some time.

 

Goblin Rabblemaster

Speaking of goblins, at Pro Tour M15 Rabblemaster was the talk of the town. It spurned enough interest from players and vendors alike to make it jump from around $1 retail to $4 retail where is still hovers on TCGPlayer.

 

 

I think there is both hype and demand factors for the spike. He didn’t get anyone into the Top 8 of the Pro Tour but it did get two people into the Top 32. Clearly there is potential in him being played in aggressive red decks upon rotation of Return to Ravnica block. The question now is can it stay at $4 or possibly even go higher in the fall? I’m not sure if the buy in now is going to enable you to make any significant profits in the future. He would need to go up to $8+ in the future to see any type of net profit and I’m not willing to take that risk. Pick them up if you plan to play them however don’t expect to make killer profits off this guy at $4.

Only if his price drops down going into September to $2 or lower would I look to buy in. I think he will see a fair amount of play after rotation. Just keep in mind that the shelf life is usually pretty short on these highly aggressive cards so I would look to get out once the control decks become established.

 

Dack Fayden FOIL

While the non-foil versions of Dack have dropped significantly since the release of Conspiracy, from the crazy preorder prices of $50+ to the now average $19 on TCGPlayer, his foil version on the other hand is a completely different story. MTGPrice is still lagging a bit on the new foil price with no clear listings from any of the vendors so I will provide this screenshot from TCGPlayer.

 

 

Only three foil listings at $350 and $450 respectively! That is a huge jump in foil price in only just a few months from the Conspiracy set release. For a while, you could have gotten yourself a nice shiny Dack for around $130. Looks like that turned out to be a bargain.

Let’s check out eBay completed listings to make sure I’m not missing anything:

 

A Japanese foil Dack sold for $500 (to be expected) but other than this outlier the rest have been ending around the $165-$175 range on average. Once lucky guy got one for $140. Even though these are completed listings, many of the BIN’s on eBay are being listed at $350+.  I don’t believe there was a particular run on foil Dack and that this is actual demand yet there is still some hype to the price.

He has real eternal format playability especially in Vintage where foiling out your deck is the norm for many players. He hasn’t made an impact in Legacy yet the potential is always there. He is a Cube instaclude and a Commander powerhouse. He is even more relevant in Commander now that Wizards is pushing Planeswalkers as generals. Eventually, enough people will house rule walkers as generals and Dack would make a sweet general. Having a foil Dack as your general is also highly desirable for many Commander players.

Now that the price has reached such lofty heights I don’t think it is going to move all that much. I really don’t know what the effect of more Conspiracy being opened is going to have on his foil – I was clearly wrong in my Conspiracy foil analysis* because the demand for foil copies is there and it is apparently very strong for those that want him now without having to bid on eBay. However, should his foil be worth almost as much as a Moat? Probably not.

If you can negotiate a good price on a foil I would pick it up but otherwise don’t buy into the current hype. I think there is volatility to the foil price because players won’t be happy seeing his foil has gone over $300 retail and this could force vendors to trend the price downward. He also has a good chance of seeing a judge foil printing once Wizards catches wind of the price, which in turn will increase the amount of foil copies on the market. These two factors make me think this new price is somewhat driven by hype and a low market supply. Going forward, I’m still going to keep in mind that there is justification for a higher price than before the spike (~$130) yet the current price feels too high to me.

*Not that this absolves me however I provided my comments on foil Dack before the C15 decks were revealed featuring Teferi as a planeswalker general. This could be another huge factor driving the foil price in addition to the other factors I mentioned.

 

Squelch

This card has spiked due to Modern demand. It has gone from around $0.30 to $3.50. Do not buy in at this point, there is no profit to be made because it will be hard for this card to sustain a price of $7 or higher for a significant length of time without being included in more decks than it is currently featured in if you do buy at $3-$4. There is also the potential reprint to consider, though the card is so odd they would have to fit it into a MM2 set or similar. If you have any copies you will be able to trade them well though price isn’t moving from $3.50 for quite some time.

 

Great Whale

Is this the cheap man’s Palinchron? It’s gone from bulk status to $3 over the past two weeks or so. I think for $6 more you could have yourself a nice Palinchron and not have to worry about using other cards outside of Caged Sun (or similar) in order to generate infinite mana.

I don’t really see a reason why this card is now $3. It’s played in… Commander, maybe? It is on the reserve list so there is that. Other than these two factors, which aren’t all that convincing, there isn’t a ton going for this card. Stay away, far away at this point.

Other Cards

I’ve also thought about the prices of some other cards and where they are going in the future. I’m taking into account Standard cards, regularly played eternal cards that will experience reprints, and casual favorites.

 

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver

Ashiok has been slowly trending upwards since his low of $5. This is a casual favorite that seems to sell well and retain a decent price. If you can grab any copies from $7-$8 trade I don’t think you can go wrong. He will always command decent casual appeal for being a mill walker and he could also see Standard play in the future.

 

Keranos, God of Storms

Many eternal players in Modern and Legacy seem to be including him in lists for UWR in Modern and UWr Miracles in Legacy. I don’t think you can go wrong with foil copies here as they stand to gain the most in the long run. Non-foils could also be a good target if you can trade for them at $6-$7 or pick them up for $5 cash.

 

 

Griselbrand & Lightning Helix

Both Griselbrand and Lightning Helix have had reprints announced. Griselbrand is scheduled to be the next GP Promo and Lightning Helix is being reprinted in the next duel deck Speed vs. Cunning.

Griselbrand has already seen a price slump due to this announcement and I unfortunately don’t think his price is going to go anywhere in a while. Sneak and Show seems to be a Legacy deck that comes and goes these days so I don’t think you can reliably rely on the deck to influence his price much at this point (unless it wins the Legacy GP in November). The buy in price is too high and the gains won’t be that significant over the next several months.

Lightning Helix on the other hand isn’t really going to be changing price much, if it all. Is is a very popular uncommon and is used quite heavily in Modern, much more than Griselbrand is used in Legacy. Don’t expect a price drop but also don’t look to acquire more. This reprint is only going to stabilize the current price.

 

Command Tower

Command Tower is around $1 now. It used to be $5 before the C14 reprint yet now that we have mono colored Commander decks coming up Command Tower will not be seeing a reprint this year. $1 is a good buy in price, cash or trade – it will never go below a $1 due to casual appeal and I believe it can only go up from here over the next year. This is definitely a card that needs to be offloaded at the opportune moment since the imminent reprint here is pretty obvious for future Commander products. Next spring though? Wouldn’t be surprised if this was $2 or more. A risk here is that they might be very hard to move unless your area has players that like to build multiple Commander decks.

 

Sands of Delirium

I’ve been seeing some chatter about this card online and it centers around the casual appeal of the card. This card is the upgraded version of Millstone because the more mana you have the more you can mill your opponent. I honestly think that Ashiok is a much better card and I would be hard pressed to buy Sands over Consuming Aberration. However, for $0.50 it seems like a pretty low buy in point. Could this break $2 or $3? It’s from a core set, which means there are fewer copies of it out there then rares from bigger sets like Return to Ravnica or Theros. If you can get these as bulk throw in’s for trades I would certainly consider it. I would say the only reason Millstone is a bulk rare now is because they reprinted it as an uncommon in M14. Before that, I was seeing Millstone sold for $0.50 with regularity. Sands of Delirium seems like a fine pick up if you can get them for $0.50 or cheaper for future gains.

By: Jared Yost

Xenagos, the Reveler

By the time this article is published, I predict that it will be hard to find Xenagos, the Reveler for less than $15. I commented on this version of Xengos in my Theros review back in September last year as a passive pickup, which meant that I recognized his power level but realized that it would take a paradigm shift in Standard in order for his abilities to really shine. When I identify passive pickups in my set reviews, I recommend that you pick them up when you have extra cards to trade or when the price becomes low enough that even if they don’t pan out in Standard they will still stabilize in price to due to casual or other demand. Xenagos was close to $7-$8 for a long time in Standard – for the past six months you could have gotten your copies fairly cheap if you picked them up slowly over time.

Usually, when a Standard card is bought out at this particular time in the season there is a good reason. Master of Waves and Thassa, God of the Sea were bought out last year during Pro Tour Theros due to the breakout of the Mono-Blue Devotion deck. Yes, you could have made money on them if you had prestocked your cart on TCGPlayer and then executed the purchase as soon as they saw decent screen time from the live coverage. However, in the long run their prices dropped considerably because more Theros was opened and people were able to pick them up much easier once more copies were in the market. Mono-Blue Devotion turned out to be one of the most dominating decks and yet the prices still went since that time last year.

 

The hype from Pro Tour Theros was mainly driven by a lack of supply. This is not the case for Xenagos, the Reveler because we’ve been opening Theros for an entire year. The majority of the copies that will exist for the next Standard are already out there. Based on Twitter postings from Friday, there was a rumor that the buyout was coordinated.

Then we had a first hand account of Nick Becvar stating that he decided to buy in on as many Xenagos as he could at GenCon.

Nick is a well respected member of the MTG finance community so when a card catches his eye I tend to pay close attention. By the time of his Twitter post, all of the cheap copies of Xenagos were gone on TCGPlayer and the mid price was about $16. However, I was able to snag a few foil copies that were still lingering around $19 that weren’t updated to reflect the non-foil price. Goes to show that even if you think you may have missed an opportunity, always make sure to check for other versions of the card including foil versions. The window is small but there are sometimes opportunities to get these deals.

The the reason why Xenagos spiked was the coverage he received during Pro Tour M15. He was in two Jund decks that placed in the Top 8 of the tournament, which was the most anticipated tournament of the summer. He received plenty of coverage from live streaming two weeks ago and players have been picking up their copies since then. Once vendors started running low and realized that people weren’t trading the ones they had back in, they readjusted the prices to reflect this demand.

 What Else Besides Xenagos Should You Be Watching?

In terms of Standard I would focus on lands and current non-rotating staples. The scrylands are all great options, since the block supplementing Theros standard is a Wedge set. There is plenty of opportunity for any of the lands to be featured in a breakout deck so I wouldn’t focus heavily on any particular land barring Mana Confluence. Mana Confluence is a nice role filler for multicolored aggro decks, so I can see it becoming important in Mardu (RWB) builds in addition to any other Wedge or two color aggro build that pops up and does well during the fall. It is also from Journey Into Nyx, so the 6:2:1 ratio will also have an effect on the price after rotation.

Speaking of aggro, Soldier of the Pantheon is another of my top targets. Ever since the fall set was announced to be Wedge based I started picking up this card en masse. This is a short term play – if the card goes up substantially in price during the fall I will also be looking to get out then. It will have a tougher time sustaining a high price once the control decks become more established. 

You should also be stocking up on any extra copies of Thoughtseize and Hero’s Downfall that you can find. These have the highest chance of being the premium black cards of Standard in the fall. I would focus more on Thoughtseize than Downfall, even though it has a higher buy in price. Thoughtseize is an eternal playable that might have a higher chance of the elusive double spike once the newly announced Modern Pro Tour taking place in February 2015 occurs. Downfall is riskier because a better removal spell could be reprinted in Khans.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion is the strongest white card right now in sheer power. Her nemesis is Scuttling Doom Engine, which Wizards created to help stave off any potential Elspeth domination of Standard. I’m still not sure which card will see more play. I tend to think Scuttling Doom Engine (SCD) since it is both colorless and a rare, which means that it can fit into multiple archetypes that can support it and it will be cheaper for players to acquire initially so more are apt to brew with SCD.

On the other hand, Elspeth is just so strong especially in control builds. Of course, my line of thinking could be completely changed once Khans comes out but for now I tend to favor SCD as the card that will see the biggest gains percentage wise.I feel like Elspeth has peaked somewhat. She costs six mana, which means that players have fewer copies of her in decks, and she is already at around $20. I can’t see her going up much more from there based on an average two copies per deck. I doubt that SCD will reach Thragtusk level of dominance but there always seems to be a rare from a core set that reaches a really high price…

Lastly, I want to mention slivers. Here my advice is to wait until rotation and pick up any foil copies of M14/M15 slivers that seem to be popular. I think this is the best call for the short and long term. Even if there is a breakout sliver deck it will only be around for about another month. I’m going to bide my time, wait for rotation, and then a few months afterwards try to scoop up any popular M14/M15 slivers for value in the long run.