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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here we go!

Buying Period: Feb 21st – 28th, 2015

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

• Long: 5x Daretti, Scrap Savant (NM): $3.20 per
• Mid: 12x Soulflayer (NM):  $1.50 per
• Long: 4x Polluted Delta (KTK, NM): $12.50 per
• Long: 4x Flooded Strand (KTK, NM): $12.50 per
• Long: 4x Windswept Heath (KTK, NM): $8 per
• Long: 10x Kiora’s Follower (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $0.25 per
• Long: 10x Plague Stinger (NM – Alt Art Promo): $0.25 per
• Long: 10x In Garruk’s Wake (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $0.25 per

My buying pattern was largely opportunistic this week, breaking off whatever deals I stumbled across as I sell off many of my better specs from earlier in the year.

First off, tip of the hat to Brainstorm Brewery’s own Ryan Bushard for turning me on to Daretti, Scrap Savant as an undervalued planeswalker currently being held back by the total value of the other rares from the red Commander 2014 deck. Anything under $5 seems like a great entry point for a 1-2 year hold up above $10.

I’m in for cheap Soulflayers all day long, as I’m still relatively certain that the card finds a home in Modern and/or Legacy in at least a Tier 2 deck that will Top 8 sooner or later. I’ve play tested the card in Deep Sea Delver a bunch, and it’s power level in the Delve/Aggro-Combo builds that are floating around isn’t that different from Tasigur and can easily be better with the right enabling cards.

Though I believe that we will be waiting at least a couple of years to see real appreciation in the KTK fetchlands, I’ve started acquiring playsets at the low end of available pricing, while I keep an eye out for a $200 set of 20.

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I also bought up a few more promo sets for the trade binder, since the price was so sweet.

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Note: Guo Heng Chin buys from Malyasia, so his costs will tend to be different than for those of us based in the west. 

• 1 x Cartel Aristocrat Foil (NM): $2.77
• 1 x Anax and Cymede Foil (NM): $1.94

Guo says:

“Both cards were acquired for personal use with store credit. I’ve discussed both of them in my article a few days back; I think both cards have a lot of potential in Tiny Leaders and foils are relatively cheap now. 

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Jared Yost

• 23x Rakshasa Deathdealer (NM): $0.95 per
• 10x Chord of Calling (NM): $3.99 per
• 1x Anafenza, the Foremost (NM, Prerelease Foil): $17.50 per
• 1x Alesha, Who Smiles at Death (NM, Prerelease Foil): $8.20 per

Jared says:

“I decided to pick up several Deathdealers, as I feel that they are very underpriced at $1. G/B/x aggro decks have been putting up decent results even after Fate Reforged has been released. Also, when Theros rotates out Deathdealer could shine in the post-Theros Standard environment.

I picked up some Chords this week as well due to the Birthing Pod ban. I feel that eventually Chord of Calling will be quite good in Modern. It was priced at $25 and higher before the M15 reprint. $4 seems very underpriced to me for such a powerful effect.

Lastly, I picked up the prelease foil Anafenza and Alesha as Tiny Leaders specs. Both generals seem strong in the format.”

 Travis Allen

Sold:

• 16x Whisperwood Elemental, $12.50 per
• 1x Azusa, Lost but Seeking: $39.00 per

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Innovation continues to define both Standard and Modern as we roll on through one of the best constructed seasons in the last decade. Winners at notable major tournaments this past weekend define our big movers this week, as the community looks forward to Dragons of Tarkir spoilers in just a few short weeks.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Whisperwood Elemental (Fate Reforged, Mythic): $8.98 to $12.12 (35%)

Green was already the default best color in standard before Fate Reforged rolled up and dropped this sweet threat onto the table. Though many were dubious at first, recent showings at big standard tournaments has demonstrated that Whisperwood Elemental is an excellent way to close out games fast if your opponent isn’t packing enough removal. In partnership with Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, and various mana dorks, this heavy hitter provides especially tricky scenarios for both aggro and control decks who will often have trouble going just one for one with the lord of the groves.  With FRF not likely to be as opened as many other sets, there’s a good chance that this one falls off a bit heading into summer, only to rise again at rotation. As such you can sell now if you got in early and don’t need them to play with. Otherwise, you’re safe to hold into fall.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold/Sell

2. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx (Theros, Rare):  $4.12 to $5.45 (32%)

Prices on this most wondrous of mana generators range anywhere from $5 to $8 at present, with scant few copies available anywhere in the $3-4 range it was trading at just a few weeks back. Blame the rediscovery of mono-green and green-X devotion builds, within which Nykthos is often the glue that binds the deck together, powering out Temur Sabertooth, Whisperwood Elemental and Hornet Queens with equal finesse. I’ve been a buyer thus far on any copies I could find under $4, but your best entry point may now be at rotation, where you should be able to scoop copies up and sit on them for a few years to double up.

Format(s): Standard, Modern, EDH/Casual

Verdict: Hold

3. Outpost Siege (Fate Reforged, Rare): $2.12 to $2.80

The other deck that is doing exceptionally well right now is R/W aggro, but in truth, getting a free card per turn for the low low cost of just 3R is likely to appeal to many decks over the next year. Heck, we use to pay 4 a turn for this effect! With constant play, this card could easily rise into the $6-8 range next fall, so if you can score some under $4, it seems like a reasonable bet on card advantage continuing to be worth of a few card slots for the rest of the year.

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Format(s): Standard, EDH/Casual

Verdict: Buy

4. Genesis Hydra (M15, Rare): $1.95 to $2.44 (25%)

I’ve been holding some of these since they first came out, but they never really got there as a spec, so those 3 playsets will be finding homes in my trade binder and various casual decks once I’m done with them in Standard. The card is great, and there is some version of the future where it might even catch fire in Modern with Nykthos to power it out and do something ugly, but I wouldn’t be caught holding my breath on that, or very many of these at rotation either.

Format(s): Standard, EDH/Casual

Verdict: Trade/Sell

5. Asuza, Lost but Seeking (Champions of Kamigawa, Rare): $30.13 to $36.11

It’s hard to believe that I was picking these up last year at $6 as an EDH spec, and now here we are with Amulet Bloom earning Tier 1 respect in Modern and this card ensuring it has enough consistency in comboing off to make those bones. There is a solid chance this single print rare shows up in Modern Masters 2 this summer, so it’s probably time to claim whatever profits you can and look to pick some up on the cheap when MM2 prices bottom out in July.

Format(s): Modern EDH/Casual

Verdict: Trade/Sell

 3 Top Losers of the Week

1. All is Dust (Rise of the Eldrazi, Rare): $20.32 to $14.00 (-31%)

This is a great card in EDH/Casual environments, and cool factor has kept it up, but the threat of a reprint in MM2 is just too great for it to not recede into fearful territory. You should be unloading these.

Format(s): Modern EDH/Casual

Verdict: Trade/Sell

2. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $4.87 to $3.93 (19%)

This card’s been on a bit of a roller coaster lately with it’s price tightly tied to how well GBx Reanimation strategies are doing at big Standard tournaments. It will likely oscillate in the $3-6 range heading toward rotation, but you don’t want to be caught holding too many because this will be a low demand casual card come the fall. There’s also a fresh printing in the Clash Pack for the spring, which hardly helps.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Trade/Sell

3. Pact of Negation (Modern Masters, Rare): $14.78 to $13.07 (12%)

Given that this key card from the Amulet Bloom deck has been on the rise of late, I wouldn’t give this minor pullback much thought. Having just been printed in the last Modern Masters set, it’s pretty unlikely to see yet another reprint in MM2 this summer, so you are likely safe to snag these in the $12-14 range or in trades where you can, hoping it will rise into the $20 zone on the back of one deck or another.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Buy/Trade

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It recently occurred to us here that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when we actually put our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such we’ve decided to run a weekly series simply breaking down what we’ve been buying this week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought without hope of profit, where appropriate. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here we go!

Buying Period: Feb 15th – 21st, 2015

Guest Report: “Davis” (Toronto, Canada MTGFinance Hustler)

While most of us are just talking about buying cards, guys like “Davis” (not his real name) are out there hustling for paper in both directions. I first came across Davis when preparing for GP NJ last fall, when he lent me some much needed Legacy cards without the slightest demand for compensation, having never met me before. Intrigued by his trust, we chatted on social media, and it quickly became apparent to me that he was one of the sharpest minds in MTGFinance. Davis has a keen eye for a deal, and he’s willing to travel to get things done. When others are scared, he’s stockpiling, and recently we’ve been chatting about how the swings in exchange up here (the Canadian dollar has moved from $1.05 against the USD last summer to $1.28 now) have made acquiring Legacy and Vintage staples in Canada a serious bargain.

Here’s what Davis has been up to this week:

• 6x Alt Art Ugin, the Spirit Dragon: $60 per
• Swords to Plowshares (FNM Foil): $95
• Lightning Bolt (Judge Foil): $115
• Counterbalance (Foil NM): $65
• Thoughtseize (Foil NM Lorwyn): $175
• Foil Gaea’s Cradle $195
• 12x Polluted Delta (KTK) $10
• 12x Flooded Strand (KTK) $10
• 12x Windswept heath (KTK) $8
• 12x Wooded Foothills (KTK) $8
• 12x Bloodstained Mire (KTK) $7

“Here in Canada, we don’t have our outlets like TCGPlayer to sell our cards [as easily as in the US], and for most players, buying via TCG is such a hassle, due to shipping costs (if the seller will even ship internationally to begin with) and border fees, so the local players tend to ignore TCG, and most deals are based on StarCityGames prices. SCG is known to be terrible for pricing, but when you take the recent changes in the value of our dollar, you start to realize how cheap our cards actually are. “

“What once was TCGPlayer’s low prices against the highest buylist, I now look at the difference in foreign currencies, and see where SCG prices in Canadian dollars relates to US buylists. For example, a near-mint Underground Sea is being sold by our local stores for $300 Canadian, and Æther Games was buying them at $230 US Dollars at GP San Jose. Now when you put both into a common currency, $300 Canadian is only $239 US. You can currently buy cards in Canada for nearly buylist prices from our retail stores! As of today, the current TCG low on Flooded Strand is $12.83 USD, meanwhile our stores are essentially selling them for 11.56 USD. And many players will sell their cards for even less than that of the local stores.”

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

• Mid: 1x Russian Thoughtseize (SP Lorwyn): $60
• Mid: 2x Abrupt Decay (NM): $11 per
• Mid: 9x Temur Battle Rage (NM): $1.35 per
• Long: 10x Mind Control (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Kiora’s Follower (NM – Alt Art Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Vault Skirge (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Hall of Triumph (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Dictate of the Twin Gods (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Magister of Worth (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per
• Long: 10x Megantic Sliver (NM – Alt Art Foil Promo): $.020 per

This week was a bit quiet on my side of things, as I spent more spare time playing Magic than buying cards. Standard is just in such a great spot right now, so I’m all in with no less than 5 decks on hand.

The Russian Thoughtseize is a pretty rare specialty item given that’s a Lorwyn edition, so I snapped it up for personal play use, with the potential for upside should the more common versions start pushing the price higher next year.

I continue to acquire Abrupt Decay, having start in on the card at $6 last year, and up to about 40 copies at this point. I see this powerful multi-format all-star hitting $20 within the year, as it should be free of reprint risk for the next year or two, and is one of the most powerful removal spells in both Modern and Legacy, as well as being excellent in the emerging Tiny Leaders format. It could also stall out in the mid teens, but it’s almost impossible for the card to reverse course, and that makes it a great place to store some value at the outside worst.

Temur Battle Rage first popped on my radar when I saw LSV steal a few games with it on camera in limited. The ability to deal immense amounts of damage in a hurry is much more powerful than most people realize, as both double strike and trample can easily wreck plans. Then I started seeing the card show up all over the place on MTGO, in bizarre hyper aggro builds leveraging cards like Steppe Lynx, Death’s Shadow and Wild Nacatl. It’s only a common, but it’s from a set that won’t be opened for very long on it’s own, and I can easily see these foils hitting $3-5 at some point down the road when aggro regains prominence in Modern. This is a perfect example of the kind of long shot specs you should stay away from if your funds are limited, especially if you don’t already have your allotment of cards like Abrupt Decay or Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Speaking of long shots, I picked up another 12 copies of Soulflayer around $1, because I’m convinced that this card has a future home in Modern and/or Legacy. Oddly many of my peers disagree and see this card as pure bulk. To my eyes, it’s basically Tasigur without Legendary limitations and much more upside in aggro/combo builds. Sure Tasigur only requires a single black mana vs. double black, and he has that sweet recursive ability in long games, but if Tasigur is an 8/10 on power level, I think Soulflayer is at least a 6 or 7, especially when you’re set to give him Hexproof. Travis Woo even through together a Soulflayer brew this week for Modern that looked predictably loose, yet still very powerful in the games on camera. In the hands of a more devoted brewer, and with the high potential of future synergistic cards adding to it’s power, I’m happy to be holding 20+ of this card.

Re: all the promos, they aren’t the kind of cards I tend to target, especially if they don’t represent top of mind demand, but a local LGS had them on special as 10 for $2.00 packs, unplayed, so I snapped them up to add to my trade fodder, with a few held aside for Cube and Commander decks. Given that most of these cards are already worth $1-3, that’s a pretty great deal.

Guo Heng Chin (@theguoheng)

Note: Guo Heng Chin buys from Malyasia, so his costs will tend to be different than for those of us based in the west. 

• Long: 4 x foil Kemba, Kha Regent (NM): $3.99 per.

Guo says:

“In my article last week, I mentioned that Kemba, Kha Regent is a good pick up at under $5 and what better way to back my argument than moving in on a few myself. Kemba is a rare combination of a solid leader in Tiny Leaders who at the same time oozes casual appeal. She is also a good addition to equipment-centric Nahiri decks.

Just four copies as I am not interested in ‘buying out’ the market (nor do I have the resources to do so). Any less than four makes the $7 recorded shipping to Malaysia unjustifiable.”

 

Jared Yost

• 1x Thassa, God of the Sea (NM Foil): $15
• 1x Sygg, River Guide  (NM Foil): $11
• 1x Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest (NM Promo Foil): $6
• 1x Selvala, Explorer Returned (NM Foil): $9
• 1x Rayne, Academy Chancellor (NM Foil): $10
• 1x Isamaru, Hound of Konda (NM Foil): $20

Jared says:

“This is all Tiny Leaders speculation. I’m targeting foil Commanders since they are the centerpiece of their respective decks. I will continue to look for more opportunities in Tiny Leaders as the format evolves.”

 Cliff Daigle & Travis Allen

Nothing to report this week.

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Get the Cube Starter Bundle with the 3rd Edition Grimoire Deck Box, the brand new Grimoire Deck Box designed specifically for the red mage in you. 

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Iterations on the metagame are moving fast and furious these days, with the decks to beat seemingly shifting every week as results roll in from the big weekend tourneys. Meanwhile in the background, speculation surrounding recent Modern top performers and the emergance of the Tiny Leaders format is driving additional price shifts.  Here’s the down low on the major price shifts in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Summer Bloom (Visions, Uncommon): $1.60 to $3.00 (88%)

Summer Bloom is a classic combo piece, meaning that it really needs a prominent deck to be doing well to be in demand. At the moment that deck is Amulet Bloom, which took 2nd at the Modern Pro Tour Fate Reforged last week and drove prices higher on several of the key components in the aftermath. However, because this is an uncommon that’s been printed multiple times and had few other obvious applications, I’d steer clear of it entirely as spec material at present.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Hold/Sell

2. Wild Defiance (Avacyn Restored, Uncommon): $1.42 to $2.46 (+73%)

Here is a card that was basically forgotten until bright minds in the Tom Ross camp realized it might be the missing component to a successful Infect deck in Modern. The card provides reach by ensuring that any top decked pump spell threatens lethal damage when applied to whichever creature your opponent hasn’t managed to kill yet. Regular copies shouldn’t be on your radar, as there are plenty around, and foils are only worth considering if you really believe that Infect has long legs in Modern, as their recent bump took them from around $2 to $8-9.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Sell Foils/Ignore Non-Foils

3. Puresteel Paladin (New Phyrexia, Rare): $2.36 to $3.98 (+68%)

A couple of different things are pushing this card up, including Commander/EDH demand via Nihiri, the Lithomancer and some tiny leaders speculation. This could easily tap  $6-8 on the shoulder, but again, it could easily show up in Modern Masters 2 and fall back to $2-3. Foils are already around $20 so I’m steering clear and outing my few copies in trades looking for $5 in value.

Format: Standard/Modern/EDH/Tiny Leaders

Verdict: Buy/Trade

 

4. Wilt-Leaf Liege (Shadowmoor, Rare): $16.42 to $26.14 (+59%)

This card already had moderate casual demand and is sourced from an under-opened set, so showing up in a strong Abzan deck at the Pro Tour (as an answer to discard and Lilianna of the Veil alongside Loxodin Smiter) was sure to cause a spike. If the card stays useful in Modern all year, expect the card to settle in the $22-$28 range, but beware a possible MM2 reprint that would crash this down into a $4-6 fallen star of a spec. I’m outing my copies this week for certain.

Format: Casual/Modern

Verdict: Sell

 

5.  Pact of Negation (Modern Masters, Rare): $11.45 to $16.45 (+43%)

Pact of Negation is another key component of the Amulet Bloom deck, often providing the kill in concert with a resolved Hive Mind as the opponent is handed a spell they aren’t prepared to pay for in their next upkeep, consequently costing them the game. As a Future Sight/Modern Masters rare, and a counter spell with multiple future applications, I really like this card below $10, but I’m less excited to acquire them now that they’ve risen off Pro Tour hype and seem to be on track to plateau in the $20-$25 range this year. Interestingly however, foils of the MM version are still available for $25, well below the 2x standard foil multiplier, which is tempting given the card only really sees demand in Modern and Legacy where foils are in higher demand.

Format: Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Buy Foils

 

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Ugin, The Spirit Dragon (Alternate Art Promo, Mythic): $220 to $160

Most of us were totally caught off guard by the insane rise in price on the promo Ugin that was only available at the Fate Reforged pre-release events. Peaking around $250 just over a week ago, copies can now be found on Ebay around $150-$160 and it’s hard to tell where things go from here. As a non-foil of a card that is only every really played as a 1-of, my instincts tell me this could just as easily collapse under $80 as to regain $200 this year. There may be money to made by the brave or the foolish, but I’m keeping my wallet firmly clamped shut on this one for fear of variance.

Format(s): Standard/Cube/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Trade/Sell

2. Rings of Brighthearth (Lorwyn, Rare): $22.50 to $18.12 (-24%)

This card was pretty hot a few weeks ago, mostly because someone was trying to corner the market on it. The card has a unique effect that plays well in EDH/Commander and at Casual tables, and it doesn’t seem like an obvious inclusion in MM2 in June. With only limited demand to keep the price spike afloat, it’s fallen back a bit. That being said, some quick math shows we’re only 20 copies or so away from another spike in the base price. Foils are commanding a 3x premium already, so stay away from those in favor of easier targets.

Format(s): Casual/EDH

Verdict: Trade/Sell

3. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $4.46 to $3.89 (-15%)

Rotation is still a ways off, but the Whip decks are being displaced somewhat by recent shifts in the Standard metagame towards R/G Devotion, Mono Red Aggro and R/W and R/W/U token builds. There is also a promo foil floating around under $2.50. For the long term, foils are available around $6, which is a low premium for an iconic card that will likely find a home in cubes and at casual tables for years to come.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/Cube/EDH

Verdict: Sell Non-Foils/Buy Foils

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

ADVERTISEMENT: Looking for a deck box to match your play style and personality? Look no further! Check out the Grimoire Beta Edition – a spell book looking deck box with stylish cover art that fits you